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Hi

I've been reading predictions from different sources that the FTSE (and Dow Jones) will fall by around 50% from their current levels over the next 1 to 3 years. Company P/E's are likely to fall to single figures.

The predictions are based on previous recessions and are convincing enough for me to bail out of shares completely.

Apparently Warren Buffet has sold a shed full of shares and bought $11 Billion worth of Corporate Bonds and Preference Shares. He sold shares like Proctor & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.

Scales

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I hope not . ........... but just in case, my new investments have been Corporate Bond Unit Trusts.

What's the alternative - cash deposits are about 3% max.

Hi Roger

I'm thinking gold for protection of capital. First bought some in Feb 2005. It's risen threefold since and is expected to double over the next year or two (the next bubble?).

I'm also reading that 2009 is the year for Corporate Bonds. A large chunk of the Governments "Quantitative Easing", around £50 Billion (from memory) will be used to buy up Government and Corporate Bonds. The chance of a Capital Gain as well as a better interest rate?

The Unit trusts are the only way into the Corporate Bond market for mere mortals like us. Many of them are heavily exposed to banks though. Invesco Perpetual only have one (Barclays) in its top ten apparently. Solus Sterling is not too exposed either.

Scales

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I've long held the view that Unit Trusts are the only sensible way to invest - if the fund managers can't guarantee the best choice of shares, what chance do individuals have? Gambling is different to investment - at my level, anyway.

The Invesco Perpetual and Jupiter Corporate Bond Unit Trusts are both highly regarded, currently yeilding 6%+ if held in ISA with the opportunity for capital growth.

Usual disclaimer - investments can go up or down, capital value isn't guaranteed and this doesn't constitute a recommendation.

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I aint got no money :blink: But I am about to take a second job as my workload his tailed off. Things should be on the up, soon. As for investing, if I had the cash i would be very wary.

Bankers? Pha!

Regards
Ian

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There goes my Stakeholder Pension!

GeorgeB Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult

When I said I was normal. .....maybe I exaggerated somewhat!

Skoda Superb MK3 190ps DSG 4X4 estate closely followed by a Swift Challenger 580 Alde

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Hi

The predictions are based on previous recessions and are convincing enough for me to bail out of shares completely.

Scales

Why don't you just 'short' the FTSE. If you believe that it is going to fall that significantly I am sure you could get some very good odds.

Pete.

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Forget saving it - buy a new 'van! ;)

2011 S Max Titanium Powershift

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2011 Swift Conqueror 570 Special Equipment

'If I'd Been Born Thirty Years Later They Would Call It ADHD'

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Warren Buffett said he would continue to buy shares and bonds from companies. "Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down," he quipped. However, he hinted that his focus this year would be in snapping up companies at bargain prices that had the potential for solid earnings growth in the future. "We like buying underpriced securities, but we like buying fairly-priced operating businesses even more," he wrote.

 

http://www. telegraph. co. uk/finance/finance. ..s-billions. html

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Guest Phoenix

The following is an extract from something I read few years ago. It's not posted here to prompt a reply, and I am not saying that I agree or disagree with the senario. All I ask is that you read it, and think about the implications for the world if we took this advice?

Wishful thinking, or a real possibility? You decide.

Phoenix.

 

"Economists concede that economics is an inexact science. What does that mean? Perhaps it means their economic forecast is no better than yours or mine. Recently, economists have told us to hope that the job market will improve and that the stock market will climb again steady.

 

Yet, the newspapers continue to report more and more jobs losses. Our economy is getting increasingly complex. We associate this with progress, but the following problems have become too inherent in our economy: needless poverty, unemployment, inflation, the threat of depression, taxes, crimes related to profit, health being a matter of wealth. we are becoming a nation of litigation, materialism and greed.

 

We love our freedom, yet we have allowed the use of money to completely dominate our way of life. We are no longer a free people. We are all in debt, living in fear of depression, inflation, inadequate medical coverage and losing our jobs, yet we put our collective heads in the sand.

 

There is something we can do. We can look into ourselves for an answer. We may find that we have the strength to for a way of life without money, and can alleviate if not completely eliminate all of the previously mentioned problems. Yes, we scoff at the idea. We are totally convinced that money is a necessity. We cannot imagine life without money. Perhaps the time has come to think otherwise, as our present economy no longer satisfies our present day needs.

 

A way of life without money demands only that we, as individuals, do the work we love to do. We can learn to distribute our goods and services according to need rather than by the ability to pay, eliminating poverty and materialism. Our sense of value will change. Wealth will no longer be a status symbol. A man will be judged by what he is, not by what he has. Since cooperation will replace competition, government, industry and the people can learn to work together as a team to meet the economic needs of our nation as well as each individual.

 

Consider also, that perhaps millions of people will be freed from jobs associated with the use of money. Millions more that are now unemployed or on welfare will also be available to help fill the labour needs of our country. Thus, we will have the work force necessary to do the work that is not economically feasible at present, such as cleaning our environment (land, sea and air), conservation, recycling, and humanitarian work.

 

The advantages of a way of life without money stagger the imagination; but they are real and cannot be disputed. If man could only overcome his greed, and learn to cooperate, then perhaps we could all move on to a better life?"

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Hi,

 

With the state of interest on savings being the way it is we've decided against selling our house and we're going to rent it as we should recveive over three times the income. OK we won't have the capital to use but we live comfortably enough and we'll soon build it back up again,

Regards,

Ian.

Bailey Unicorn Vigo and a 2017 Ford S Max and a Mercedes SLK AMG Sport 9 speed, my mid life crisis solver.

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The biggest problem we face at present is constant 'reports' of doom and gloom. These reports are far more responsible for the continued downturn than they should be. Bad news is the only news that papers and TV seem to want to give out. The more they tell us how bad it is, the more people get worried and hence stop spending/saving/living!

We need to take stock and pay less attention to the media :blink:

For my part, I have noticed that after a very quiet time just before and after Christmas, work is picking up again significantly - at least in the residential sector so let's celebrate something good for a change :rolleyes:

Also, the sun is shining, the sky is blue - 2º mind but lovely day nevertheless.

It is Monday though :huh:

 

Martin W

Discovery D3 HSE + Coachman VIP 575/4 2016

www.pennplanning.co.uk

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Hi Martin,

I've simply stopped taking any notice of the doom and gloom merchants on the news,

regards,

Ian.

Bailey Unicorn Vigo and a 2017 Ford S Max and a Mercedes SLK AMG Sport 9 speed, my mid life crisis solver.

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Phoenix. that statement is correct and I have always lived my life that way. the only debt I ever had was my Mortgage, anything else if I have not got the money for I don't buy it. I took early retirement over 4yrs ago at the age of 52. Although my occupational pension is 1/3 of what I used to take home, I have a better living standard now that when I used to work, no debt, no stress more holidays. Reccession is man made helped by politicians, greedy bankers . the victim is the always the people who has to work for a living and thinking they can have a better life by living on borrowing.

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Hi

I've been reading predictions from different sources that the FTSE (and Dow Jones) will fall by around 50% from their current levels over the next 1 to 3 years. Company P/E's are likely to fall to single figures.

The predictions are based on previous recessions and are convincing enough for me to bail out of shares completely.

Apparently Warren Buffet has sold a shed full of shares and bought $11 Billion worth of Corporate Bonds and Preference Shares. He sold shares like Proctor & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson.

Scales

the problem I have is that these are the same people who have spent the last 10 years saying the boom would never end!!!!!! Didn't I read that Warren Buffet also lost a load in the recent downturn??? have put the bed on blocks so I can keep stuffing my pennies under it :D

Bessacarr Cameo 525 towed by SsangYong Rexton 2.2 auto in Brown.

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I'm probably an idiot but I'm holding my shares(currently "managed" by an IFA)as I'm in it for the long term-despite my age. Wish I'd sold them all 18 months ago but I didn't, and I don't see any logic in offloading them in a bear market. Only time will tell.

I'm probably very lucky in that I don't rely on them for income.

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Why don't you just 'short' the FTSE. If you believe that it is going to fall that significantly I am sure you could get some very good odds.

Pete.

 

I'm seriously thinking about that. Problem is I'm not really a gambler. I like to be on the safe side.

 

Scales

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the problem I have is that these are the same people who have spent the last 10 years saying the boom would never end!!!!!! Didn't I read that Warren Buffet also lost a load in the recent downturn??? have put the bed on blocks so I can keep stuffing my pennies under it :D

 

And I thought it was Gordon Brown that had put an end to Boom & Bust - well he claimed he had anyway.

 

Scales

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I'm probably an idiot but I'm holding my shares(currently "managed" by an IFA)as I'm in it for the long term-despite my age. Wish I'd sold them all 18 months ago but I didn't, and I don't see any logic in offloading them in a bear market. Only time will tell.

I'm probably very lucky in that I don't rely on them for income.

 

Hi Paul

 

I too don't currently rely on them for income but although index linked my pension is gradually depreciating and at some time I'll probably need capital to help it out.

 

There are others who need income from their capital and if they lose a substantial part of it their quality of life may be badly affected. Which is why I started the thread.

 

Scales

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The biggest problem we face at present is constant 'reports' of doom and gloom. These reports are far more responsible for the continued downturn than they should be. Bad news is the only news that papers and TV seem to want to give out. The more they tell us how bad it is, the more people get worried and hence stop spending/saving/living!

We need to take stock and pay less attention to the media :blink:

For my part, I have noticed that after a very quiet time just before and after Christmas, work is picking up again significantly - at least in the residential sector so let's celebrate something good for a change :rolleyes:

Also, the sun is shining, the sky is blue - 2º mind but lovely day nevertheless.

It is Monday though :huh:

 

Martin W

I disagree, Martin - we're in this position because of constant exaggerated reports of boom and profits which hyped up prices of property and shares way beyond their true values and the bust was inevitable - property prices are still too high, I know that mortgage-holders don't want to see them drop further but until they become realistic we'll continue to have a boom/bust economy - whether it's me or an economic commentator saying that doesn't cause the problem, it's people who won't get their heads out of the sand that causes the problem. Mr Brown can't get rid of boom/bust just because he makes a speech - the only thing that will get rid of it is to get rid of the human greed that causes the boom.

 

Wishing for economic prosperity is all very well - it's just not very effective.

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I'm seriously thinking about that. Problem is I'm not really a gambler. I like to be on the safe side.

 

Scales

Isn't this what got the hedge funds into trouble and caused the credit crunch in the first place?

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I disagree, Martin - we're in this position because of constant exaggerated reports of boom and profits which hyped up prices of property and shares way beyond their true values and the bust was inevitable - property prices are still too high, I know that mortgage-holders don't want to see them drop further but until they become realistic we'll continue to have a boom/bust economy - whether it's me or an economic commentator saying that doesn't cause the problem, it's people who won't get their heads out of the sand that causes the problem. Mr Brown can't get rid of boom/bust just because he makes a speech - the only thing that will get rid of it is to get rid of the human greed that causes the boom.

 

Wishing for economic prosperity is all very well - it's just not very effective.

Hi Roger - agree entirely with you BUT all I am saying is that the media are fuelling peoples fear and prolonging the situation. I certainly have seen improvements in the sitation locally! :unsure:

 

Still, on another thread, Scotland wants to put the price of alcohol up, the greens want me to dispose of my car (in a recyclable and enviromantlaly friendly way) and buy a bicycle instead (can you tow with one?). The Council want to charge more for less, houses are replacing every school playing field in the area yet we are told to get kids exercising more . .... i could go on but depression comes in many guises and I am determined to enjoy life for as long as it is mine - I wish more people would take this attitude :o

 

Martin W

Discovery D3 HSE + Coachman VIP 575/4 2016

www.pennplanning.co.uk

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Hi Martin,

I believe that today Scotland brought in minimum pricing on alcohol so once again the responsible majority are suffering for irresponsible minority who can't moderate thier drinking. So, I believe that, this will have an affect on the already struggling drink industry when we're in recession! So well done to the Scottish Government for hitting an industry that appears to be struggling.

Why not just address the problem of the irresponsible drinkers?

Regards,

Ian.

Bailey Unicorn Vigo and a 2017 Ford S Max and a Mercedes SLK AMG Sport 9 speed, my mid life crisis solver.

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Hi Martin,

I believe that today Scotland brought in minimum pricing on alcohol so once again the responsible majority are suffering for irresponsible minority who can't moderate thier drinking. So, I believe that, this will have an affect on the already struggling drink industry when we're in recession! So well done to the Scottish Government for hitting an industry that appears to be struggling.

Why not just address the problem of the irresponsible drinkers?

Regards,

Ian.

Just how should they do that?

 

Even before the oil boom and the recent economic "miracle", Scotland had a drink problem despite low incomes and expensively taxed alcohol so there's nothing new in this latest revelation.

 

I don't have the answer either - I enjoy whisky as much as many Scots!

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Hi Paul

 

I too don't currently rely on them for income but although index linked my pension is gradually depreciating and at some time I'll probably need capital to help it out.

 

There are others who need income from their capital and if they lose a substantial part of it their quality of life may be badly affected. Which is why I started the thread.

 

Scales

Thanks Scales. I support your point. Just pointing out that it might not be right for all to sell their stocks. I accept that,in this respect,I'm extremely lucky.

My main concern is for my kids' future.

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