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How easy it is to potentially catch covid.

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One of my sons old school friends is in the army and has been based up here in the North for several years and is being moved south.

 

During the past couple of weeks he has been doing the rounds of saying goodbye to friends, keeping up with social distancing and organising the move which was on Monday, halfway through Monday he felt hot but thought it was with being busy unpacking and moving furniture about, later  he noticed a loss of smell and a dry mouth, but not much else, phoned the NHS and got an immediate test and he has got Covid, his wife has also tested positive but with no symptoms yet, both self isolating at home at the moment.

 

On Saturday he called at my sons and both of his brothers to say goodbye, all done in their gardens keeping up with distancing, they and their families have all had the test and now must wait 48 hours to 5 days for the results, in the meantime all told to self isolate.

 

I had a chat with his friend this morning, at the moment he just feels rough, his wife has no symptoms yet, and he said the worst thing is wondering where he caught it and working out everyone he has been in contact with over the past 14 days, which, under the circumstances, moving, is a far greater number of potential contacts than during a normal 14 day period.

 

Also, a neighbour just phoned to say a couple of pubs have had to close again due to customers with Covid going in over the weekend.

 

It seems it will be a long time before the fat lady sings.

 

 

 

 

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That is sobering to hear. On the radio 4 news this morning the means of transmission continues to be a topic of discussion. There seem to be many more scientists/medics now leaning towards the idea that 'aerosol' transmission could play a bigger part than previously thought. It sounds as though this results in airborn sources of infection remaining in the air much longer than previously thought there by making it easier to catch and where for instance hand washing wouldn't prevent this means of transmission.

 

I suppose we shouldn't be surprised to see changes in advice as a result of the scientists/medics gaining more experience of dealing with the virus and learning more about the methods of transmission. 

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Unfortunately the idiots who were breaking all the rules were assuming that we know it all.

They know it all dont they? so we must know it all, and the authorities must know it all.

Working on the assumtion that we certainly do not know it all, is the only safe way in my opinion. 


Ern

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My thoughts are how good your immune system is, everything else is left to chance. The experts are still learning, remember when they said at first, do not take ibuprofen then they said to take it.   Although the lungs are affected, so long as your asthma is managed you are at no more risk than anyone else.   Back in 2015 I had flu I was that bad my son came up to help.  I had the doctor to the house although house calls are frowned upon. I thought that was it , however I survived and my OH and my son never caught the virus, even though they were both in contact with me, so it comes back to your immune system and the luck of the draw. 

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Aside from the current debate over whether airborne transmission is possible, it is very easy to catch IF you are near a source of infection, all the handwashing, social distancing and facemasks are only effective if used properly, and even they are not foolproof. It only takes a single handshake to pass it on, or contact with a door handle that was last used by a sufferer who has just covered his/her mouth when sneezing, or has just touched their facemask.

However, the actual number of people in the UK currently with active infection represents a tiny proportion of the population, so for many of us the chances of catching it are actually quite low.

One small consolation is that it is now becoming clear that a great many people (perhaps as high as 80%) of the people who catch it have no symptoms whatsoever!

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5 minutes ago, Stevan said:

 

One small consolation is that it is now becoming clear that a great many people (perhaps as high as 80%) of the people who catch it have no symptoms whatsoever!

 

I'm not sure that's what the data is actually saying.

What it is saying is that up to 80% of those tested positive had no symptoms at the time of testing. That means that they might be pre-symptomatic or post-symptomatic as well as totally asymptomatic. If the period of testing positive is an average of three weeks, say, and the average period of symptoms is the middle week, then it's possible, roughly, that 27% are in one of the three categories and that circa 20% have symptoms. That, given a margin for error gets somewhere near a 25% split  where a quarter of those tested positive are totally asymptomatic, a quarter symptomatic, a quarter pre-symptomatic and a quarter post-symptomatic. Of course it will never be as neat and tidy as that but it's a possibility that it's roughly around that sort of split.  


I've got nothing to do on this hot afternoon

but to settle down and write you a line.

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57 minutes ago, Stevan said:

It only takes a single handshake to pass it on, or contact with a door handle that was last used by a sufferer who has just covered his/her mouth when sneezing, or has just touched their facemask.

You have to get the virus from your hand into your mouth.

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The danger is people becoming blasé and complacent.  An 81year old neighbour was rushed to hospital on Sunday with possible heart problems (fortunately a false alarm and now home). She asked my immediate neighbour to phone her daughter, when he did so the daughter said she would get a taxi ASAP. My neighbour being a kindly soul said not to bother...he would pick her up and run her to the hospital....which he did. He even went back and picked her up later. 
 

Now that was the sort of thing we have always done for each other.. to help friends and family. But now.......should we be rethinking these sort of acts?  He had no idea about her recent contacts/movements. He never questioned having someone sat beside him (both without masks) for the 15-20min journey. 
 

I (jokingly) told him today he couldn’t borrow my Karcher to do his patio...for 14days. He really didn’t see the risk he took especially at his 75yrs age.
 

And that’s the problem. It only takes one oversight. 

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2 minutes ago, ericfield said:


 

Now that was the sort of thing we have always done for each other.. to help friends and family. But now.......should we be rethinking these sort of acts?  He had no idea about her recent contacts/movements. He never questioned having someone sat beside him (both without masks) for the 15-20min journey. 
 

 

Yes, we should be "rethinking these sort of acts", then after thinking, we should decide that the humanitarian/friendship need is worth the risk!

 

 

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taking this a step further, I have always said to those new to caravanning, to ask on site  if they have a problem or need help or a tool as you will always find they are a really helpful lot and most are willing to help where they can, but will they now, would you ?  I think that I would probably help from a distance.

 

 

 

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47 minutes ago, AndersG said:

You have to get the virus from your hand into your mouth.

 

But according to some sources it can pass into your system through your eyes.

 

BBC breakfast were talking about the situation in Melbourne, how they are entering their winter season, cooler temperatures and experiencing an increased rate of infections. The fear being our rate may increase later in the year.

 

Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon, the financial support needed and the non - covid medical cases postponements will become unsustainable very soon, if not already.

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Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Stevan said:

Yes, we should be "rethinking these sort of acts", then after thinking, we should decide that the humanitarian/friendship need is worth the risk!

 

 

I wasn’t suggesting rethinking acts of kindness but rethinking HOW we do them...like having masks in the car and asking people to wear them.  If it’s right for ambulance crews to wear masks (like they did when they took her into hospital) then maybe just maybe having someone in your car without either of you wearing them, is a bit shortsighted.

13 minutes ago, Dave Capiro owner said:

 

But according to some sources it can pass into your system through your eyes.

 

BBC breakfast were talking about the situation in Melbourne, how they are entering their winter season, cooler temperatures and experiencing an increased rate of infections. The fear being our rate may increase later in the year.

 

Hopefully a vaccine will be available soon, the financial support needed and the non - covid medical cases postponements will become unsustainable very soon, if not already.

Don’t put your money on a vaccine! 

Edited by ericfield

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, jetA1 said:

That is sobering to hear. On the radio 4 news this morning the means of transmission continues to be a topic of discussion. There seem to be many more scientists/medics now leaning towards the idea that 'aerosol' transmission could play a bigger part than previously thought. It sounds as though this results in airborn sources of infection remaining in the air much longer than previously thought there by making it easier to catch and where for instance hand washing wouldn't prevent this means of transmission.

 

I suppose we shouldn't be surprised to see changes in advice as a result of the scientists/medics gaining more experience of dealing with the virus and learning more about the methods of transmission. 

But a mask would help, which is why we've been wearing masks in public since the start of the pandemic.    We've aslso been hand-washing, social distancing, and staying at home as much as possible, boosting our immune system working in the garden, and eating well.  I think that's all we can humanly do.

 

Edited by ValA

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Masks don’t protect the wearer very much at all (Unless they are the super-whizzo type that hospitals have) What they do do is help to prevent anyone who does have it from passing it on. But it’s not foolproof. The best course of action is staying away from other people, which is why we had the lockdown. 

 

 

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Experience is an awful teacher who ends up sending you simply horrifying bills

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And if you read the government advice those over 70 should still seek to stay away from other people, except those in their household. The same goes for those that are shielding, once shielding ends. So a fairly large portion of the population shouldn't actually indulge in pubs, restaurants etc.


I've got nothing to do on this hot afternoon

but to settle down and write you a line.

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i wouldn't go anywhere where there are crowds but on the other hand we can't stay shut up forever. A lot of over 70's have been in since the beginning of last winter and we may be in again this coming winter, speaking for myself , it's not living so I think that I would take all the precautions and try and live as normal a life as possible

19 hours ago, AndersG said:

You have to get the virus from your hand into your mouth.

yes, you're right , which is why they keep saying to wash your hands .  It's spread through respiratory droplets, whether you breath it in or touch it and transfer it to your  mouth, nose or eyes

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21 minutes ago, joanie said:

i wouldn't go anywhere where there are crowds but on the other hand we can't stay shut up forever. A lot of over 70's have been in since the beginning of last winter and we may be in again this coming winter, speaking for myself , it's not living so I think that I would take all the precautions and try and live as normal a life as possible

 

Absolutely, level of risk and quality of life do not easily factor into simple rules of behaviour.

 

If you want to look at it mathematically, and all these numbers are very much "finger in the air",:-

A typical 70 year old has a reasonable expected lifespan of another 20 years.

Living under isolation rules is only half normal life quality, so a year under isolation costs 1/40 (2.5%) of expected life.

 

Nobody knows with any accuracy how many people who come into contact with Covid19 die,(some people just don't seem to catch it, some catch it with only minor or no symptoms, some get symptoms but recover) , a pessimistic figure puts the death rate at 1%.

 

So if you isolate you lose 2.5% of your life.

If you ignore all protective measures you run a 1% risk of losing your life.

You pays your money and takes your pick! OR, you get on with your life as best you can, taking such precautions as do not interfere TOO much and run somewhere below the 1%.

 

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2 minutes ago, Stevan said:

Absolutely, level of risk and quality of life do not easily factor into simple rules of behaviour.

 

If you want to look at it mathematically, and all these numbers are very much "finger in the air",:-

A typical 70 year old has a reasonable expected lifespan of another 20 years.

Living under isolation rules is only half normal life quality, so a year under isolation costs 1/40 (2.5%) of expected life.

 

Nobody knows with any accuracy how many people who come into contact with Covid19 die,(some people just don't seem to catch it, some catch it with only minor or no symptoms, some get symptoms but recover) , a pessimistic figure puts the death rate at 1%.

 

So if you isolate you lose 2.5% of your life.

If you ignore all protective measures you run a 1% risk of losing your life.

You pays your money and takes your pick! OR, you get on with your life as best you can, taking such precautions as do not interfere TOO much and run somewhere below the 1%.

 

 

Except that the, admittedly pessimistic, estimate of 1% death rate is for the whole population that catch it. As you age that % increases markedly.

 

One thing I think that the government should do is have a website where you dial up your age and get specific info on the known or suspected risk levels and what restrictions apply to that year's age cohort. Splitting it up by years means they can apply nuancing, rather than using blocks of ages where, for instance, the risk may be low at 70, but much higher at 79, whereas at present they talk about those in their '70's.


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4 minutes ago, Steamdrivenandy said:

 

Except that the, admittedly pessimistic, estimate of 1% death rate is for the whole population that catch it. As you age that % increases markedly.

 

Yes, but if you are in generally good health and not frail it decreases markedly.

 

6 minutes ago, Steamdrivenandy said:

 

 

One thing I think that the government should do is have a website where you dial up your age and get specific info on the known or suspected risk levels and what restrictions apply to that year's age cohort. Splitting it up by years means they can apply nuancing, rather than using blocks of ages where, for instance, the risk may be low at 70, but much higher at 79, whereas at present they Talk about those in their '70's.

Good idea, but without a single reliably proven factor it would be no better than guesswork!

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We are in our 70's and we've been staying at home since mid March and our weekly shop is done by relatives. Yesterday I took the plunge and went to our nearest B&Q.  Staff were wearing visors and the whole store was well marked with direction arrows etc. However, quite a lot of people were simply ignoring all the signs and walking in the wrong direction and pushing past people. A couple of guys who looked like tradesmen were leaving the store with no goods, and they both squeezed past the customers at the till after they had walked the length of the store in the entrance aisle. People were trying to stand aside to avoid them. I could not believe these people were being so deliberately pig headed. I wore my mask and only spotted one other person wearing one. I couldn't get out quick enough and wont be returning in a hurry. I dont know any more than the rest about the risks and statistics but this behaviour is certain to be a big risk.


Ern

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it's all guesswork, but it's a fact that your immune system reduces with age. When this started in March we made sure that all was in order and faced up to the fact that if either of us went into hospital with covid19, we would say our goodbyes .  The government frightened us so much back then, okay nothing much has changed, the virus is still with us , but at least this is not the end of civilisation :unsure:

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14 minutes ago, Ern said:

 A couple of guys who looked like tradesmen were leaving the store with no goods, and they both squeezed past the customers at the till after they had walked the length of the store in the entrance aisle. People were trying to stand aside to avoid them. I could not believe these people were being so deliberately pig headed. I wore my mask and only spotted one other person wearing one. I couldn't get out quick enough and wont be returning in a hurry. I dont know any more than the rest about the risks and statistics but this behaviour is certain to be a big risk.

 

As I've noted on my daily walks, tradesmen of every description do not practise social distancing.  I guess they must have immunity......... 


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6 minutes ago, Ern said:

We are in our 70's and we've been staying at home since mid March and our weekly shop is done by relatives. Yesterday I took the plunge and went to our nearest B&Q.  Staff were wearing visors and the whole store was well marked with direction arrows etc. However, quite a lot of people were simply ignoring all the signs and walking in the wrong direction and pushing past people. A couple of guys who looked like tradesmen were leaving the store with no goods, and they both squeezed past the customers at the till after they had walked the length of the store in the entrance aisle. People were trying to stand aside to avoid them. I could not believe these people were being so deliberately pig headed. I wore my mask and only spotted one other person wearing one. I couldn't get out quick enough and wont be returning in a hurry. I dont know any more than the rest about the risks and statistics but this behaviour is certain to be a big risk.

The whole 2 metre distancing issue, whilst containing a core of sensible practice, is so muddled as to be almost farcical, made worse by attempts to enforce the less sensible parts of it.

The disease is primarily spread by exhaled water droplets, being inhaled or otherwise contacted.

We exhale very few of these when standing or walking normally.

We exhale FAR more of these when talking, sneezing, coughing, singing or breathing heavily while out of breath.

These water droplets fall to the ground fairly quickly, mainly within 2 metres (where the number comes from!).

For many of us the biggest risk time is if we are holding a face to face conversation with someone, and for this, the 2 metre rule is vital as we each unconsciously project a steady stream of these droplets at each other.

However, if we are not standing face to face, the droplets will not be directed at each other.

If we are not talking, such as just standing in a queue there will be far fewer droplets.

If we are outdoors it is likely that many of the droplets will be carried away by air movements.

If we are simply walking past, the length of time we could be exposed to the droplets is tiny.

If we wear a mask (other than full medical PPE) it will not prevent us inhaling droplets but will catch many of the droplets we exhale, thus protecting others. Touching the masks and thus getting the virus on our hands is a subject in itself.

Simply walking past someone, or even brushing against them back to back, at less than 2metres, while not facing them, is far less of a risk than even a brief conversation at only 2 metres, or a handshake.

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Interesting comments from a load of qualified immunologists!  In my village a man who had Covid was in hospital for 6 weeks.  He had no underlying health conditions, and had two strokes, sepsis and partial heart failure.  He was 31 years old...  

People need to realise that there is a big degree of risk if you catch this, a bit like personal Russian roulette


Larry from Essex

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20 minutes ago, Guzzilazz said:

 

People need to realise that there is a big degree of risk if you catch this, a bit like personal Russian roulette

Not really, Russian roulette is a totally voluntary activity and involves a 1in 6 chance of dying and nothing to gain if you survive. A no brain required decision!

The Covid risk is there whether we like it or not and involves a 0.5% chance of dying (taking very much estimated but pessimistic figure) with an absolutely normal life for the vast majority of survivors. My choice is simple, take reasonable precautions and get on with life!

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