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Petrol and diesel sales to be banned by 2032?

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4 hours ago, Silversurf said:

 

My neighbour and I who is a biochemist for a large fuel company spoke about the time when cars etc will no longer use petrol and derv and the  consequences of the reduced demand, with the possibility of the demand being reduced further as commercial vehicles are brought into the scheme.

 

One interesting point she made and not often heard is that the cost of many things that use the products of  refining crude oil, oils, paints, plastics, pharmaceuticals, including petrol,  derv and a bewildering number of things, is based on the volume output of production, remembering that the production of just say one product, a particular oil,  from a barrel of crude will leave a quantity of residue that can't be used to produce any more of that product, where as in the present state of production virtually all the barrel will be used up, and economically, as each fraction is used, remove part of that production and the revenue from it, petrol and derv, the cost of the rest of the items will increase.

 

Not only that but the need to reduce output will have an effect at plant replacement time where decisions will have to be made made to either run the present plant at low capacity, less economical or build smaller plant that can be run at maximum capacity, more economical.

 

It's not as simple as some Green folk want us to believe.

 

 

 

 

To be honest for the last 30 years my employment has been in fossil fuels and still is.

 

I've heard all arguments and made many myself.

 

But what I've seen happen with Carbon trading in the last ten years has changed my mindset. If the political will is there and the correct financial framework is in place then business will change and very quickly.  It's whether the Politicians will get it right and the voting public will agree.

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Ukzero said:

No new internal combustion engine vehicles after 2032, not even plugin hybrids to help the transition and no gas boilers in new homes within next few years.

These are indeed aspirations and fashionable green headline grabbers. Even Talk now of increasing VAT on heating gas for everyone - including those older less well insulated homes. Methane is a hydrocarbon but it is THE lowest carbon hydrocarbon fuel.

I understand the idea is to move away from gas heating to electricity in the form of heat pumps which (ignoring their limitations) would lead to a huge increase in demand for electricity nationwide.

Couple this extra demand with the extra demand to charge electric vehicles and we have the perfect storm to overload the National Grid.

 

Wind farms and the like often generate surplus unusable energy on windy days that aren't very cold and this could be used to electrolyse water to produce Hydrogen.

However, rather than rushing to develop hydrogen fuel celled vehicles (with a whole new infrastructure needed and another carbon impact), why oh why don't they plan to use the hydrogen to mix with the country's natural gas supply. Gas boilers can be easily adapted to run on a hydrogen/methane mix and the whole distribution infrastructure is in place. So less CO2 from your boiler, so no need to build and install new heating systems (with yet another carbon impact) to heat your home with electricity. This would leave more electricity to cope with the huge likely demand for electric vehicle charging.

 

I would be more willing to support current green thinking if it actually made sense to me. I hope someone can explain what I am not seeing.

 

 

 

 

Hydrogen is seeing massive investment but not for small scale domestic use but to balance the grid.  Produce hydrogen when there is access power on the grid and use hydrogen to produce power when there's a lack of renewable on the system. A battery for the Grid.

 

Correctly insulated homes with heat pumps are the answer to getting rid of gas but the challenge is the amount of older properties that the UK has.

 

But we do have a bit longer to be gas free. 

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There is one of the few  hydrogen filling stations in the country near where I live . I have never seen a car at the pump.

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As I post this nearly 37% of the National Grid’s supply is from wind generation.   Who would of thought even 10 years ago that would even be possible?

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The Chemical Engineer magazine often has articles on hydrogen and one example is about the project for a hydrogen network in the north west. The hydrogen would come from natural gas (methane) with the carbon dioxide produced being stored to effectively give a low carbon fuel. This is opposed to using the natural gas by consumers and the CO2 ending up in the atmosphere.

https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/features/hynet-demonstrating-an-integrated-hydrogen-economy/

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4 hours ago, fred said:

As I post this nearly 37% of the National Grid’s supply is from wind generation.   Who would of thought even 10 years ago that would even be possible?

 

beware of statistics, there are, as someone once said, lies, damned lies and statistics. The actual % of electricity used in the UK in 2019 generated by wind power was slightly under 20%. There are ongoing plans to increase that, and in fact new plants are being built constantly. With our shallow sea beds and generally windy climate we lead the world in wind power and look likely to continue to do so, but wind power has a significant flaw. It only works when the wind blows, so alternative generation sources need to be available for when it doesn't. 

 

The only way we could service the demand for a wholly EV environment would be through nuclear power, I've read different suggestions that we would need between four and eight new reactors. Whichever is true is pretty irrelevant as we have been trying to build a new station at Hinckley Point for the last twelve years and as of yet the funding, £23bn is still not in place to even start work, on just that one!

 

If we were to wave that magic wand that was mentioned and find a way to create the infrastructure and capacity to charge all of these electric vehicles, then the planet we live on does not have the raw materials to produce the batteries that would be needed for a global EV revolution. Already vast tracts of land in South America are being deforested to mine lithium, cobalt, cadmium etc. Lithium is also extracted from seawater in a hugely power hungry process. That alone destroys the environmental benefit of EVs before you even plug one in. What it does do is export the problem, and the UK can say it is doing its bit to reduce pollution, despite driving it up elsewhere. As the production of EVs increases these metals will become more and more expensive meaning the cost of batteries will increase, dramatically, not decrease as some would have us believe. It is already known that China is stock piling cadmium ahead of a global shortage which could occur as soon as the next five years.  Those leading the research into battery development still cannot decide which technology is likely to be the best, Silica-Lithium, Vanadium, Dual Carbon? All are being developed but all demonstrate the drawback which has dogged batteries since someone first stuck a penny in a lemon, the faster you charge them the quicker they degrade. No battery we have yet invented can withstand constant super fast charging. Then there is the environmental fall out of batteries. Batteries invariably end up in landfill because of the gulf in cost between recycling them and the value of the materials recovered. Only 5% of lithium batteries across Europe and the USA are recycled, outside these areas it is virtually none. 

 

Government set it's targets, they know they are unrealistic but they satisfy not only the bunny lovers but also the various conventions on global emissions and climate change to which the UK subscribes, conventions which it should be noted are not supported by China, India or the USA, by far the worlds largest polluters. Because of this, anything we do will have no impact whatsoever on the global situation, though we still try, we must try and hope that at some point these dirtiest of nations come to their senses. 

 

The only long term solution for transportation is the fuel cell, most motor manufacturers acknowledge that but it still requires a massive infrastructure change in order to implement it. For those manufacturers and for government EVs are the easy option. Build a few recharging points at motorway service stations, shopping centers, car parks etc and leave it up to Joe Public to work around the problem of finding somewhere to plug in, and what do with themselves whilst their car slowly refuels itself. 

 

 

Edited by PMW
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On 28/06/2020 at 11:20, Will deBeast said:

We're in the same mind.  We've had our current caravan just over 5 years, and made the decision not to buy a replacement.

 

Similarly, the only reason we have a big car is for towing the caravan.  We'll keep the existing car for now.

We have made the same caravan decision twice in the past 10 years or so and, guess what, we didn’t keep to it😀😀

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They only have to increase the tax on diesel/petrol to reduce usage..........

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58 minutes ago, david 1220 said:

They only have to increase the tax on diesel/petrol to reduce usage..........

The problem with increasing car tax as a sole means of driving fossil fuel cars off the road is you are hitting those without the means to buy electric cars which in itself is not going to help with an impending recession and high unemployment, it won`t bother me so its not a selfish view.

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Just a random thought. When sales of Petrol and diesel start to drop dramatically, how will they replace the lost revenue stream. Maybe a special tax for electric consumed by chargers. But then it would need metering. Hmm just doesn’t seem to have been fully thought through 

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Bicycle tax to replace fuel tax simple. Haha 

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The answer to all of the transport problems is an EV car with a wind turbine on the roof. As it travels along the slipstreem drives the wind tubine that produces the power to drive along. To get started from stationary all it needs is 100 what solar panel to top up the battery while it's parked or stuck in traffic jams caused by those gas guzzlers running out of fuel. Supprised that no one else has thought of it :D

 

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Our motorhome is a year old and I can't really see us buying another as we are both approaching our mid seventies. More difficult with our "at home" car. I would quite like an electric one but I wonder how I will afford one? My current Kia Venga cost about £17000 just under four years ago and despite its very low mileage it won't be worth much. So this is the dilemma for people in a similar situation how does one afford a new electric car? The nearest equivalent is a Kia Soul, assuming you can put up with it's looks, it costs £35000 so double what I previously paid for a petrol car. Even if the Government did what I understand Norway has done and removed VAT from new electric cars its still going to cost nearly £30000!!! Unless there is a massive reduction in the cost of new EV's I just wonder what people will do?

 

David

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40 minutes ago, Artleknock said:

The answer to all of the transport problems is an EV car with a wind turbine on the roof. As it travels along the slipstreem drives the wind tubine that produces the power to drive along. To get started from stationary all it needs is 100 what solar panel to top up the battery while it's parked or stuck in traffic jams caused by those gas guzzlers running out of fuel. Supprised that no one else has thought of it :D

 

Sounds very similar to an aeroplane :D

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Somebody is trying to invent perpetual motion.......:D

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2 minutes ago, david 1220 said:

Somebody is trying to invent perpetual motion.......:D

 

To late, it’s been done.

 

Woman who lives about two houses down from me has got it cracked, her jaw NEVER stops :D

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2 hours ago, klyne said:

My current Kia Venga cost about £17000 just under four years ago and despite its very low mileage it won't be worth much.

 

My then three year old merc cost much the same nice one owner low mileage car and I tried to find at least a hybrid that would do what I needed, even at the cost of the convertible roof. The only one out there within my budget was the Volvo V60 diesel PHEV but the cost of that hybrid system is a much lower mpg on diesel than a standard V60 or my three liter Merc. So whilst I would be in the plus on the once a week trip to the supermarket everytime we take the van away I would be in the minus, plus I have the anxiety of battery life, plus I would have had to buy a slightly older, higher mileage equivalent. 

 

When the Mitsubishi PHEV was launched I was really keen but the only person I know who ever had one reckoned it was under powered for pulling his 1500kg van, which is it's maximum rating and so no good at all my twin axle. 

 

The problems for towing with an EV are two fold, firstly the excess heat caused in the motors by the extra load, and the extra battery drain caused. You would have to way over engineer the car for normal use for it to be able to pull a serious van, which would make it far more expensive even than current EVs. I know the new Tesla SUV has a rated capacity of 2000kg but I have not heard any real life figures of how towing that weight impacts on range. I would imagine it would be pretty severe.

 

I doubt there are many people who would not want to drive an electric car with the approximate cost per mile of 3p on electric as opposed to many times that on petrol or diesel, but they need to be affordable and fit for the purpose we need.   

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4 hours ago, Lost in the wilderness said:

Just a random thought. When sales of Petrol and diesel start to drop dramatically, how will they replace the lost revenue stream. Maybe a special tax for electric consumed by chargers. But then it would need metering. Hmm just doesn’t seem to have been fully thought through 

 

The ultimate resolution to the loss of fuel tax will be road pricing. There is undoubtedly going to be a period of time when EV's will be less expensive to run than ICE, but once the market matures and EV's are more numerous the lost fuel duty revenue will have to be made up. It will be then that EV running cost increase because road pricing can be used to make sure that the tax load is spread far and wide. 

 

Just my 2p 

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Just one question, if the current government said in 2032 it was going to give everyone a year long tax break and a million quid would you believe them, probably not because its very easy to say what they will do in the future when they won’t be there.

 

So a target to aim to yes – a definite well when we see a honest politician I will say yes

 

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15 hours ago, david 1220 said:

They only have to increase the tax on diesel/petrol to reduce usage..........

Is that the greens answer to anything they don't like, TAX it out of reach of the masses.

 

kot

pigs

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8 hours ago, pigsfly said:

Is that the greens answer to anything they don't like, TAX it out of reach of the masses.

 

kot

pigs

 

Not only the greens, the Tory's and Labour.

 

 

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Whoever has disagreed with my post above needs to look at Carbon trading and the various agreements that successive Governments have signed up to.

 

How do we think renewables have been funded? Where have the subsidies come from? Could it be the massive taxation on fossil fuels.  

All that cost has been paid for by the consumer and the same goes for other industries that pay massive tax bills for their CO2 output due to Carbon Trading.

The consumer (Us) pic up the bill. It's indirect taxation imposed by Government legislation.

 

If the Government had said 30% Carbon tax on your electric bill there would have been riots. What's been done is no different but easier for the governments to spin.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by logiclee

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On 28/06/2020 at 11:11, logiclee said:

A Government advisory body is calling for the Petrol and Diesel ban to be bought forward to 2032.

 

I don't expect to be alive by then. No worries

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If you tow a large caravan diesel is still the best option for combining performance and economy as far as I can tell. No doubt technology will improve and that will change but for the moment I'm glad I got my car whilst diesels are still available. There is no diesel model in the current Cayenne range and they will no doubt continue to disappear from many manufacturers' offerings. 'Dirty' diesels were 'demonised' for a while but the latest models are much cleaner and I believe for a period second hand diesels may be in demand as new options become unavailable.

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Part of the government plans to reduce petrol and diesel sales seems to be rented e-scooters on the roads. Companies already do this in other countries and are keen to expand here. If they do not get stolen/dumped like rental bikes it might make them some money. Not seen one yet on a road but have on paths. Being limited to 15 mph should keep them off motorways but would not like to come across any on national speed limit roads.

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