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I have just watched IN TOTAL DISBELIEF a live televised service from Hereford Cathedral with a sizeable congregation present and most certainly not practising safe distancing apart - do these worshippers know something that we don't know or are they just simply plain stupid or is it me that is just missing out by not being there some 150 miles away and receiving my slash of Holy Water ?

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Life in general can be a journey of chance with some winners and sadly some losers. Your outfit can never be left to chance. A short-while carrying out essential checks can ensure a long-time of happy & safe caravanning for all concerned.
Ignorance can often be bliss but is certainly not an excuse and when continually disregarded they can be totally disastrous for oneself and the innocent parties.

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If you really don't understand why people are being advised to only go out when necessary to shop, exercise for an hour or  not make unnecessary journeys and that really does include sitting on a beac

I dont think you are correct - it's not the fact of witholding funds its more than likely that its the way the funds are utilised and prioritised that's more to the point.   Did we really ne

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1 minute ago, 2seaside said:

It may also be that the population of some countries will follow recommended advice better than the population of other countries (I am thinking about the social-distancing advice here).

I don't think that ANBODY knows the real situation one way or another, we are all trying to make educated guesses, and I pity "them in charge" trying to balance health against the risk of totally trashing the economy and ending up with a cure that is worse than the disease.

There has also been a suggestion, put forward by some experts, that some childhood vaccinations, BCG being one, confer some degree of immunity or resistance. It is therefore possible that national variations in Covid 19 infection rates are influenced by national vaccination programs over the last 70 years or so.

Just another possibility, by as you say, nobody knows for certain.

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Sorry re-read post by Lutz, brain didn’t compute not in U.K. 

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9 minutes ago, AWanderingLancastrian said:

I have just watched IN TOTAL DISBELIEF a live televised service from Hereford Cathedral with a sizeable congregation present and most certainly not practising safe distancing apart - do these worshippers know something that we don't know or are they just simply plain stupid or is it me that is just missing out by not being there some 150 miles away and receiving my slash of Holy Water ?

 

Maybe a little homework? The service lead from Hereford Cathedral was a recording made before the church was closed, and the hymns etc were from past recordings of Songs of Praise.

 

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19 minutes ago, 2seaside said:

It may also be that the population of some countries will follow recommended advice better than the population of other countries (I am thinking about the social-distancing advice here).

 

 

That would explain differences in confirmed cases relative to the total population, but not in the mortality rate relative to the number of confirmed cases.

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10 minutes ago, AWanderingLancastrian said:

I have just watched IN TOTAL DISBELIEF a live televised service from Hereford Cathedral with a sizeable congregation present and most certainly not practising safe distancing apart - do these worshippers know something that we don't know or are they just simply plain stupid or is it me that is just missing out by not being there some 150 miles away and receiving my slash of Holy Water ?

Was it really live, as it says on their website, "On Sunday 5 April at 10.45 am, BBC One will be broadcasting a pre-recorded service for Palm Sunday led by the Dean of Hereford, the Very Reverend Michael Tavinor"?

 

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Unless otherwise stated, my posts will be my personal thoughts and have the same standing as any other member of Caravan Talk.

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4 minutes ago, Woodentop said:

 

Maybe a little homework? The service lead from Hereford Cathedral was a recording made before the church was closed, and the hymns etc were from past recordings of Songs of Praise.

 

Hi Woodentop.  The Sky TV/BBC on-screen information at 11:10 hrs stated that it was from Hereford Cathedral on Palm Sunday which is today the 5th April 2020.

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Life in general can be a journey of chance with some winners and sadly some losers. Your outfit can never be left to chance. A short-while carrying out essential checks can ensure a long-time of happy & safe caravanning for all concerned.
Ignorance can often be bliss but is certainly not an excuse and when continually disregarded they can be totally disastrous for oneself and the innocent parties.

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There are Palm Sundays every year. 

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Graham

 

Unless otherwise stated all posts are my personal opinion 

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12 minutes ago, Lutz said:

 

That would explain differences in confirmed cases relative to the total population, but not in the mortality rate relative to the number of confirmed cases.

 

..of interest:

 

Differing death rates

First, there is confusion about what people mean by “death rate”. This confusion can make countries’ numbers look vastly different, even if their populations are dying at the same rate.

There are, in fact, two kinds of fatality rate. The first is the proportion of people who die who have tested positive for the disease. This is called the “case fatality rate”. The second kind is the proportion of people who die after having the infection overall; as many of these will never be picked up, this figure has to be an estimate. This is the “infection fatality rate”.

In other words, the case fatality rate describes how many people doctors can be sure are killed by the infection, versus how many people the virus kills overall, says Carl Heneghan, an epidemiologist and director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford; he is also a GP in recovery from a suspected Covid-19 infection.

 

To see what a difference this makes, consider 100 people who have been infected with Covid-19. Ten of them have it so severely that they go into hospital, where they test positive for Covid-19. The other 90 are not tested at all. One of the hospital patients then dies from the virus. The other 99 people survive.

That would give a case fatality rate of one in 10, or 10%. But the infection fatality rate would be just one in 100, or 1%.

The lack of widespread, systematic testing in most countries is the main source of discrepancies in death rates internationally

So if some countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (which is what the UK is currently doing) – the death rate can appear higher than in countries where testing is widespread (such as Germany or South Korea).

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1 hour ago, Townie said:

Dr Catherine Calderwood, (Scotlands Chief Medical Officer),  and her husband and children were photographed visiting their second home "just to check it" this weekend. They (according to reports), stayed overnight and then travelled back to Edinburgh. She has been on TV over the last few weeks urging people to stay at home and protect the NHS. Do as I say but NOT as I do??

IF that report is truse she should be kicked out of office for demonstrating such stupidity. Can anyone that stupid be trusted to do the important job they are paid for?   

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Ern

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2 minutes ago, WispMan said:

There are Palm Sundays every year. 

 

Yes of course there are but not necessarily being televised on Sunday 5th April 2020 at 11:10 hrs as I discovered and with NO ONSCREEN information as to the fact that it was prerecorded on March 22nd prior to the closure of areas where there could be mass gatherings.

Even the TV Guide did not indicate that it was pre-recorded at any time in the past.

Life in general can be a journey of chance with some winners and sadly some losers. Your outfit can never be left to chance. A short-while carrying out essential checks can ensure a long-time of happy & safe caravanning for all concerned.
Ignorance can often be bliss but is certainly not an excuse and when continually disregarded they can be totally disastrous for oneself and the innocent parties.

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40 minutes ago, 2seaside said:

It may also be that the population of some countries will follow recommended advice better than the population of other countries (I am thinking about the social-distancing advice here).

I don't think that ANBODY knows the real situation one way or another, we are all trying to make educated guesses, and I pity "them in charge" trying to balance health against the risk of totally trashing the economy and ending up with a cure that is worse than the disease.

 

 

The Economy can be fixed but we can't fix death ?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, AWanderingLancastrian said:

 

Yes of course there are but not necessarily being televised on Sunday 5th April 2020 at 11:10 hrs as I discovered and with NO ONSCREEN information as to the fact that it was prerecorded on March 22nd prior to the closure of areas where there could be mass gatherings.

Even the TV Guide did not indicate that it was pre-recorded at any time in the past.

I have just googled BBC TV guide and Iplayer says it was recorded in 2017. 

Graham

 

Unless otherwise stated all posts are my personal opinion 

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3 minutes ago, WispMan said:

I have just googled BBC TV guide and Iplayer says it was recorded in 2017. 

 

VERY CLEVER :D - I use the printed version call Whats on TV.

Life in general can be a journey of chance with some winners and sadly some losers. Your outfit can never be left to chance. A short-while carrying out essential checks can ensure a long-time of happy & safe caravanning for all concerned.
Ignorance can often be bliss but is certainly not an excuse and when continually disregarded they can be totally disastrous for oneself and the innocent parties.

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34 minutes ago, SamD said:

 

..of interest:

 

Differing death rates

First, there is confusion about what people mean by “death rate”. This confusion can make countries’ numbers look vastly different, even if their populations are dying at the same rate.

There are, in fact, two kinds of fatality rate. The first is the proportion of people who die who have tested positive for the disease. This is called the “case fatality rate”. The second kind is the proportion of people who die after having the infection overall; as many of these will never be picked up, this figure has to be an estimate. This is the “infection fatality rate”.

In other words, the case fatality rate describes how many people doctors can be sure are killed by the infection, versus how many people the virus kills overall, says Carl Heneghan, an epidemiologist and director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford; he is also a GP in recovery from a suspected Covid-19 infection.

 

To see what a difference this makes, consider 100 people who have been infected with Covid-19. Ten of them have it so severely that they go into hospital, where they test positive for Covid-19. The other 90 are not tested at all. One of the hospital patients then dies from the virus. The other 99 people survive.

That would give a case fatality rate of one in 10, or 10%. But the infection fatality rate would be just one in 100, or 1%.

The lack of widespread, systematic testing in most countries is the main source of discrepancies in death rates internationally

So if some countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (which is what the UK is currently doing) – the death rate can appear higher than in countries where testing is widespread (such as Germany or South Korea).

 

I appreciate that, but I was comparing case fatality rates and these should be comparable:

 

The following example shows figures released by the Johns Hopkins University as of today.

 

grafik.png.1314774a9a4517349fc8e2966185863b.png

 

A possible explanation for the high case fatality rate in the UK is that people are dying before they have had a chance to be tested, but it still doesn't explain why there are so many more deaths per head of the population.

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31 minutes ago, Lutz said:

 

I appreciate that, but I was comparing case fatality rates and these should be comparable:

 

The following example shows figures released by the Johns Hopkins University as of today.

 

grafik.png.1314774a9a4517349fc8e2966185863b.png

 

A possible explanation for the high case fatality rate in the UK is that people are dying before they have had a chance to be tested, but it still doesn't explain why there are so many more deaths per head of the population.

 

USA 26 deaths per million pop and China 2 per million pop.

Edited by SamD

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25 minutes ago, Lutz said:

 

I appreciate that, but I was comparing case fatality rates and these should be comparable:

 

The following example shows figures released by the Johns Hopkins University as of today.

 

grafik.png.1314774a9a4517349fc8e2966185863b.png

 

A possible explanation for the high case fatality rate in the UK is that people are dying before they have had a chance to be tested, but it still doesn't explain why there are so many more deaths per head of the population.

 

I did read (various sources) that the death rate in the UK includes anyone who has Covid-19, but does not differentiate between those who would have died anyway and those who died solely because of Covid-19.

Some people have other serious ailments, and the fact that they caught Covid-19 may well have hastened their death, but not necessarily caused it.

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6 minutes ago, SamD said:

A possible explanation for the high case fatality rate in the UK is that people are dying before they have had a chance to be tested,

That's a clever deduction.  Germans have always been meticulous with their record keeping!  :D

 

The true CFRs won't be known for a few months, when the pandemic is paused.

Edited by kelper

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6 minutes ago, kelper said:

The true CFRs won't be known for a few months, when the pandemic is paused.


Yip, it’s one of those things you can’t really capture at a moment in time, only really after the event will it be clear who dealt with it more successfully and then possibly be able to deduce why.

 

 

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1 hour ago, AWanderingLancastrian said:

I have just watched IN TOTAL DISBELIEF a live televised service from Hereford Cathedral with a sizeable congregation present and most certainly not practising safe distancing apart - do these worshippers know something that we don't know or are they just simply plain stupid or is it me that is just missing out by not being there some 150 miles away and receiving my slash of Holy Water ?

 

Are you sure it wasn't a repeat?  After all, there was a Palm Sunday last year, and the years before that.

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Churches all have lightning conductors!  Seems to prove that people in church do NOT think they are exempt from God's wrath  :D

 

Hereford cathedral has been totally closed since 23rd March.  So it was a live recording!

 

https://www.herefordcathedral.org/news/coronavirus

Edited by kelper

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3 hours ago, Townie said:

Dr Catherine Calderwood, (Scotlands Chief Medical Officer),  and her husband and children were photographed visiting their second home "just to check it" this weekend. They (according to reports), stayed overnight and then travelled back to Edinburgh. She has been on TV over the last few weeks urging people to stay at home and protect the NHS. Do as I say but NOT as I do??

That's shocking !!!  She deserves to lose her job.. No-body will ever have confidence in her "advice" again.  Replace her !!!!

Edited by bessacarr425
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3 hours ago, Easy T said:

In such an instance she had contact with nobody and to be fair to her might have been considered essential to check the property.

 

My daughter and her present boyfriend are both high risk and are presently both high risk. My daughter had been unable to work for a while (over 18 months) due to heart condition. She was hoping to find some suitable work locally when the virus became a problem for UK. Her boyfriend is being kept on the brewery payroll for the micro brewery that he works for even though they are shut down although he has popped in a couple of times to check the works as nobody else is there.

 

At present you could consider his own bungalow out in the sticks as a 'second home' but he did visit last week to cut the grass and feed the electric meter lest it ran out of credit and his freezers shut down.

Sorry Easy T but I totally disagree with your post. Doctor Catherine Calderwood visited her second home, along with her husband and children. They then spent the night there. Why did it take all of them to check on the house? If THEY can do this while she is appearing on TV telling everybody else NOT to visit second homes, why does she think that everybody else will listen to her messages? Most of us on here have caravans, some (like mine), is stored at a remote storage facility. Do you think that Dr Calderwood would consider a visit to our caravans as essential, even if it was "just to check"? A lot of us have invested a great deal of money in our 'vans, why shouldn't we be allowed to check them? If it's ok for HER to take the entire family to their second home, and spend the night there,  why shouldn't WE be allowed to visit OUR mobile second homes? THAT'S the way that a lot of the public view her actions.

Edited by Townie
Punctuation.
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2 hours ago, AWanderingLancastrian said:

Hi Woodentop.  The Sky TV/BBC on-screen information at 11:10 hrs stated that it was from Hereford Cathedral on Palm Sunday which is today the 5th April 2020.

Yes, but that doesn't mean it was live, does it, nor that it was broadcast from there. It was a recording, made some time ago, and sent out from the TV company's premises.

 

 

There does seem to be a lot of "over the top" in enforcement

I saw the police on the news last night filmed putting out the barbecue a small family group were having on Brighton(?) beach. They were well away from anyone else (except the policeman who entered their 2m space!) and the danger of the fire spreading was nil, the beach there is all pebbles.

They didn't say the family had travelled a long way, in fact they didn't even go and ask them, so what harm were they causing to themselves, or anyone else, apart from the policeman who entered their social distance space?

 

From one of the posts above, the Germans have taken the common sense approach that maintaining your space is the criteria.

Edited by daveat92
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3 hours ago, Townie said:

Dr Catherine Calderwood, (Scotlands Chief Medical Officer),  and her husband and children were photographed visiting their second home "just to check it" this weekend. They (according to reports), stayed overnight and then travelled back to Edinburgh. She has been on TV over the last few weeks urging people to stay at home and protect the NHS. Do as I say but NOT as I do??

apparently she has been given a warning by the police and some folk are wanting her to stand down

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