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Covid19


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Hi All,

 

As so many good questions, answers and comments are getting swamped by the size of this thread we'll be locking it soon and asking members to start new specific threads (parks closed, infection control etc). Hopefully, this will help members and visitors get to the information they need more quickly.

 

Please feel free to go ahead and start or continue new topics in advance of us locking this one.

 

Thanks,

Jon.

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Any thoughts on this, especially the speed it appears to be travelling outside China ?

 

With Ebola, though it spread in the original location, it didn't spread as far or as much as expected, mainly due to the limited international travel from that area.

 

The infections in China and rapid infections in surrounding countries via travel, potentially suggest that this could spread far and wide !

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This looks very serious as it can spread fast as highly contagious and deadly and mutating ?

 

 

Makes you wonder where they viruses come from so fast and usually in the far East .

 

My guess might be a research lab ?

 

Perhaps a move to the cold climate of Canada is not a bad idea ?

 

Dave

 

 

 

Edited by CommanderDave
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I thought this thread was about a new Asian Car :rolleyes:

 

Seriously, these things are worrying especially as we've been over using antibiotics for years and there is no known cure.

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12 minutes ago, CommanderDave said:

Perhaps a move to the cold climate of Canada is not a bad idea ?

 

Dave

 

 

 

Not so sure about that because the SARS virus travelled from Asia to Toronto some years ago. We visited Toronto and surrounding cities during the outbreak and my employer insisted I took an additional 10 days off work when I returned! Fully paid, of course - thank you! 

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Interestingly, the virus may have come from snakes according to New Atlas

 

My chum from the next village is very concerned; the Uni where he lectures has just had its recent intake of Chinese students return from their Christmas break.

 

I didn't know it had become 'deadly' yet.

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at the moment 18 dead and 3 being checked in Scotland.  It is a virus and has similar symptoms to influenza, which also kills. I can't do much about it so I'm not going to start worrying yet.  I often wonder how these different diseases start , I think they said that this one started with fish but  perhaps it's something in the ground , something that stays dormant for decades, there was Talk when Aids came about that it was started in a lab. We shall probably never know. 

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A doctor on TV tonight said all those who died were elderly with existing chronic illnesses, if your fit and well its ok it seems.  These people if they had caught say the flu they would have died.

So are the media stirring things up?

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12 minutes ago, David 38 said:

A doctor on TV tonight said all those who died were elderly with existing chronic illnesses, if your fit and well its ok it seems.  These people if they had caught say the flu they would have died.

So are the media stirring things up?

 

You make sound as though it's inconsequential for the elderly and those with chronic illnesses if they die during a virus outbreak.

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58 minutes ago, David 38 said:

A doctor on TV tonight said all those who died were elderly with existing chronic illnesses, if your fit and well its ok it seems.  These people if they had caught say the flu they would have died.

So are the media stirring things up?

it's a fact of life that the elderly and those who suffer a chronic illness have a reduced immunity and are less able to cope with germs and virus, that is a good reason to have the flu jab, but of course it wont help with chinese flu

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While other countries including the UK admirably are checking people arriving from China,  it appears that they are putting the cart before the horse.   The more sensible approach would have been to check people before departure from China.     ( An Aircraft is the perfect way to spread disease from one person to the rest of the passengers ).

 Containment is the best way to stop a global pandemic.

Edited by bessacarr425
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2 hours ago, bessacarr425 said:

While other countries including the UK admirably are checking people arriving from China,  it appears that they are putting the cart before the horse.   The more sensible approach would have been to check people before departure from China.     ( An Aircraft is the perfect way to spread disease from one person to the rest of the passengers ).

 Containment is the best way to stop a global pandemic.

 

👍

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11 hours ago, Black Grouse said:

 

You make sound as though it's inconsequential for the elderly and those with chronic illnesses if they die during a virus outbreak.

I just put the statement as given on TV.

 

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10 hours ago, bessacarr425 said:

While other countries including the UK admirably are checking people arriving from China,  it appears that they are putting the cart before the horse.   The more sensible approach would have been to check people before departure from China.     ( An Aircraft is the perfect way to spread disease from one person to the rest of the passengers ).

 Containment is the best way to stop a global pandemic.

:goodpost:

12 hours ago, David 38 said:

A doctor on TV tonight said all those who died were elderly with existing chronic illnesses, if your fit and well its ok it seems.  These people if they had caught say the flu they would have died.

So are the media stirring things up?

Thats me dead then :o

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They are very organized as they are building a 1000 bed hospital to take the strain of the sick now . If I go to my hospital I can wait 16 hours to see someone in A&E .

 

 

Dave

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I am watching this whole thing with a bit of concern as we are due to visit Vietnam, Cambodia and Singapore in about three weeks time and two of those three have confirmed cases! How long before travel to such destinations becomes “inadvisable” 

 

I am highly suspicious of the very drastic travel restrictions the Chinese have placed on millions of its citizens. It seems very draconian but the Chinese are not known for showing much concern for human life, so what exactly do they know, but are not telling the rest of the world about??

 

And

 

 

Experience is something you acquire after you have an urgent need for it.

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There has, to my knowledge been no explanation from China as to how the virus entered the human population.  There has been rumours that it is a snake virus or it is a fish virus, OR  is there something more sinister ??.  

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1 hour ago, Mr Plodd said:

I am watching this whole thing with a bit of concern as we are due to visit Vietnam, Cambodia and Singapore in about three weeks time and two of those three have confirmed cases! How long before travel to such destinations becomes “inadvisable” 

 

I am highly suspicious of the very drastic travel restrictions the Chinese have placed on millions of its citizens. It seems very draconian but the Chinese are not known for showing much concern for human life, so what exactly do they know, but are not telling the rest of the world about??

 

And

 

 

 

That looks worrying do you know how you stand with your travel insurance if it is cancelled or can you swap to somewhere else ?

 

I only ask as twice I have had issues when going to the middle East and in 2006 they bombed a load of tourist and in 2013 they were running round the streets rioting with machine guns and we had army guards with 50 Cal guns I found insurance companies take what the FO recommend and if they say you can travel although restricted .

 

I was told all travel has to be stopped by the FO to the region.

 

Dave

Edited by CommanderDave
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1 hour ago, bessacarr425 said:

There has, to my knowledge been no explanation from China as to how the virus entered the human population.  There has been rumours that it is a snake virus or it is a fish virus, OR  is there something more sinister ??.  

 

I had a chat last night with one of my neighbours who is a microbiologist on a similar theme, she said that there are possibly 1,000's of related  Coronavirus out in the wild, many benign and restricted to one host, the reservoir species, however the nature of any virus is that it can mutate relatively easily, again not a specific problem as long as the mutation still restricts it to the host.

 

Occasionally, like Sars,  Ebola and quite a number of recent outbreaks the virus jumps species.

 

She said in such cases there are several initial things that need to be determined, the source obviously, the means of transmission which in this case appears to be by droplet which doesn't bode well, treatment of the infected.

 

But most important is to determine, as soon as possible, if the virus is self sustaining, which is done by giving it a reproduction number, this in turn is  determined by how many, on average, people are infected by one person with the virus, below 1 and the virus will in all probability disappear in the human population, but not necessarily so in the reservoir species and could resurface at another time .

 

At the moment it is between 1.4 and 2.5 which she said is worrying , especially in densely populated areas, though at that level in a remote village could be contained relatively easily, not so in such as a major city.

 

She mentioned that forward projecting the total potential numbers of those infected is similar to guessing  ( by mental arithmetic ) the old puzzle of putting one grain of rice on a chess board square, doubling up on each square, how many grains of rice on the 64th square.

 

She also mentioned that there were many towns and villages that practised containment during the Black Death which reduced the spread.

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In 2009 swine flu killed 200+ thousand world wide which was 10x what was predicted at the time .

 

Very little seems to be known at the moment for numbers ? Spanish flu killed near 50 million in 1918 .

 

 

This virus has no weapons to fight against it.

 

Dave

Edited by CommanderDave
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I have visited China a few times on business trips. The live food markets are a social gathering place especially in the late evenings. While wandering around a market you may be invited to buy a live reptile/insect/animal/fish or "thingy that lives in sea" (I am not joking). You may then be invited to sit at a dirty white plastic table which appears from nowhere, and the purchase may be popped into a wok before your eyes. (Wok is placed on a vertical crock drain pipe with a coal gas tube beneath it and when ignited this fires up like a rocket. Wok instantly glows red.) The live animal will be placed into the wok for a few seconds and then you eat it. I have eaten live water beetles, Cobra including warm blood, large grub, bird. I refused to stay for the (looked like) Armadillo which was trying to get out of a bucket when I left. A nice chicken for a family may be purchased at one of these markets and taken home (alive of coarse) to be cooked freshly as a real treat. The rural people cannot understand why wealthy Europeans etc eat so much food which is not fresh. Especially meat. "You even eat tinned tomatoes" I was once told. Its little wonder that infectious viruses abound.

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21 hours ago, Borussia 1900 said:

I thought this thread was about a new Asian Car :rolleyes:

 

Seriously, these things are worrying especially as we've been over using antibiotics for years and there is no known cure.

 

Antibiotics are no use agains virus' anyway, but the point about antibiotic overuse is valid.

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As of the news this morning.

 

800+ confirmed infections

26 deaths - 25 of which are in Wuhan

No deaths reported outside of China.

No confirmed human to human transmission outside of China

The animal reservoir for this strain of Corona Virus is unknown

Human to Human transmission vector is unknown

 

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28 minutes ago, SteveMilner said:

As of the news this morning.

 

800+ confirmed infections

26 deaths - 25 of which are in Wuhan

No deaths reported outside of China.

No confirmed human to human transmission outside of China

The animal reservoir for this strain of Corona Virus is unknown

Human to Human transmission vector is unknown

 

 

Full barrier Hazmat suits makes you wonder how contagious and possible method of spread ?

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1 hour ago, CommanderDave said:

 

Full barrier Hazmat suits makes you wonder how contagious and possible method of spread ?

 

I think this is because they aren't sure of the transmission method - Four health workers who were treating patients became infected so I guess they've gone for a belt and braces approach. It might also be to alleviate the concerns of the health workers who may have refused to treat patients without adequate protection.

 

Ebola only spreads by contact not aerosol but hazmats are in use for treatment and disposal of bodies.

 

Edited by SteveMilner
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China has a virus lab there which was responsible for the last virus if I remember ?  Which is just a coincidence this outbreak is from the same city .

 

 

The trouble is dealing with country that is not forth coming . The are posts I heard of bodies piled lying around left in hospitals.

 

 

One has died on the Russian border 1500 miles away .

Edited by CommanderDave
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