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Wellys and Mac

No more Diesel or Petrol cars after 2035.

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17 minutes ago, Disco Kid said:

Or build a motorhome on a Honda Goldwing Trike🤔🤔

 

I've seen a homebuilt motorhome on a trike next to a CL in Flagg in the Peak District

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Not to worry all the scrap ICE vehicles in a few years time can be made into steel train rails ?

 

Kill two birds with one stone ?

 

I think ICE vehicles will start to disappear quicker than 15 years as demand will drop and the motor industry will change their range if lack of demand and prices will go into freefall .

 

We saw it with petrol when Diesel became the must have and petrols you could not give them away .

 

 

Dave

Edited by CommanderDave
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27 minutes ago, CommanderDave said:

Not to worry all the scrap ICE vehicles in a few years time can be made into steel train rails ?

 

Kill two birds with one stone ?

 

I think ICE vehicles will start to disappear quicker than 15 years as demand will drop and the motor industry will change their range if lack of demand and prices will go into freefall .

 

We saw it with petrol when Diesel became the must have and petrols you could not give them away .

 

Alternatively, when the lack of charging infrastructure begins to bite, the trade in value of EVs falls and the environmental impact of lithium mining become apparent they will go back to IC engines!

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15 hours ago, Stevan said:

Technology is a bit like electrons; if you know where it is you do not know where it is going, but if you know where it is going you do not know where it is.

The front runner for the long term is probably to use electricity to produce hydrogen and then use that hydrogen to fix atmospheric carbon dioxide into synthetic hydrocarbons which can be burnt in conventional IC engines.

 

Hydrogen hasn’t got a future in private transport and ICE's will be out.  It'll work for long-haul HGV's, heavy plant and public transport. BEV's are the future, simplistic to build with reduced maintenance and compliment future autonomous technology. Hydrogen maybe to produce electricity but the current power station in Fusina operational costs are 6 times more than conventional stations. Hydrogen refueling infrastructure is too costly but again will work for transport companies with their own yards. Graphene batteries will be out soon that will charge in minutes at current filling/charge stations and extend range. The company I work for are experimenting with graphene at the moment. Then there’s aluminum power cells that universities with the private sector are developing that are replaced once discharged. Good news is that most new battery technology is coming out of the UK. Even current lithium-ion batteries are being adapted to extend range and reduce heat during their charge cycle.  For towing BEV's will be much more better than current ICE vehicles with full torque at zero from the traction motors ... Happy days !

 

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21 minutes ago, Silverback said:

 

Hydrogen hasn’t got a future in private transport and ICE's will be out.  It'll work for long-haul HGV's, heavy plant and public transport. BEV's are the future, simplistic to build with reduced maintenance and compliment future autonomous technology. Hydrogen maybe to produce electricity but the current power station in Fusina operational costs are 6 times more than conventional stations. Hydrogen refueling infrastructure is too costly but again will work for transport companies with their own yards. Graphene batteries will be out soon that will charge in minutes at current filling/charge stations and extend range. The company I work for are experimenting with graphene at the moment. Then there’s aluminum power cells that universities with the private sector are developing that are replaced once discharged. Good news is that most new battery technology is coming out of the UK. Even current lithium-ion batteries are being adapted to extend range and reduce heat during their charge cycle.  For towing BEV's will be much more better than current ICE vehicles with full torque at zero from the traction motors ... Happy days !

 

 

 

The HGV is best suited to the EV as the weight of batteries is not a issue and the Tesla semi has a 500 mile range with 40 tons . Even vans and motorhomes with 350 miles already are better suited as batteries can be easier to accommodate .

It's the small vehicles that carry nearly 3/4 of a ton in batteries .

 

Dave

 

 

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22 minutes ago, Silverback said:

 

Hydrogen hasn’t got a future in private transport and ICE's will be out.  It'll work for long-haul HGV's, heavy plant and public transport. BEV's are the future, simplistic to build with reduced maintenance and compliment future autonomous technology. Hydrogen maybe to produce electricity but the current power station in Fusina operational costs are 6 times more than conventional stations. Hydrogen refueling infrastructure is too costly but again will work for transport companies with their own yards. Graphene batteries will be out soon that will charge in minutes at current filling/charge stations and extend range. The company I work for are experimenting with graphene at the moment. Then there’s aluminum power cells that universities with the private sector are developing that are replaced once discharged. Good news is that most new battery technology is coming out of the UK. Even current lithium-ion batteries are being adapted to extend range and reduce heat during their charge cycle.  For towing BEV's will be much more better than current ICE vehicles with full torque at zero from the traction motors ... Happy days !

 

A died in the wool optimist!

The trouble is, that every single battery technology so far has significant shortcomings which could be insurmountable and that's before the charging infrastructure issues!

Although there are numerous new battery technologies  in the pipeline, they are all only in the pipeline and there is no guarantee that any of them will make it through full scale testing.

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18 minutes ago, Stevan said:

A died in the wool optimist!

The trouble is, that every single battery technology so far has significant shortcomings which could be insurmountable and that's before the charging infrastructure issues!

Although there are numerous new battery technologies  in the pipeline, they are all only in the pipeline and there is no guarantee that any of them will make it through full scale testing.

Good point, I'm not sure  batteries are really the way to go.  There just seems so much infrastructure to build and no one willing to fund it! Let alone the raw materials to produce the batteries! Not sure what the alternative is other than hydrogen as then it can be easily  taxed and has a similar supply chain to petrol and diesel. i.e. manufacture, transport and filling stations.

I think we will be heading into interesting times over the next decade.

Edited by Ched

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42 minutes ago, Stevan said:

A died in the wool optimist!

The trouble is, that every single battery technology so far has significant shortcomings which could be insurmountable and that's before the charging infrastructure issues!

Although there are numerous new battery technologies  in the pipeline, they are all only in the pipeline and there is no guarantee that any of them will make it through full scale testing.

 

The batteries will suffice and easily compete with current ICE's lifespan and will recycle.  The grid will easily cope with the growing demand ...  It's as simple as that ... Happy Days 👍

 

https://www.nationalgrid.com/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted

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25 minutes ago, Silverback said:

 

The batteries will suffice and easily compete with current ICE's lifespan and will recycle.  The grid will easily cope with the growing demand ...  It's as simple as that ... Happy Days 👍

 

https://www.nationalgrid.com/5-myths-about-electric-vehicles-busted

There is virtually no recycling taking place today for rechargeable Lithium batteries.

 

The whole mining of these rare earth metals is both an environmental disaster and carries a massive Carbon footprint. That's before they are all attempted to be recycled.

 

Makes oil and gas look like clean energy.

 

Disagree with you on Hydrogen. Japan for example has more Hydrogen EVs than battery and fuel cell technology produces electricity. 

 

So yes the electric car is the future, but powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. We already have the technology to be able to fill a small Hydrogen tank CF LPG. The petrol stations can be upgraded to pump Hydrogen instead of petrol or diesel.

 

Hydrogen (H2) is the most abundant molecule  on earth and when it's produced its electricity then it returns to its most prolific form, water.

 

So true recycling without the murky business of big mining.

 

 

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Looks as if the government are thinking of bringing the ICE new sales ban forward to 2032 now. Nothing like moving the goalposts to make life difficult. The motor industry is already suffering, without certainty it will only get worse.

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I read about this 2032 phase out date, only on the discussion agenda at the moment.

Seems I will be doing, as I said earlier on, keep my present car and caravan and then that is that no more caravanning.

What I will do for relaxation / hobby / enjoyment then I can't imagine.

The car industry will be none too pleased if 2032 is the actual date.

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16 hours ago, Silverback said:

 

Taxes may increase but they would have increased anyway for revenues. They can't just kill ICE's it would kill the economy. How many folks need to keep mobile to earn a living,  imagine the affect on food & goods costs. It's a transitional period and from now until then car buyers will have more choices to suit their mobility profiles, whether that's ICE's , Hybrids, Hydrogen or BEV's they're all available now to purchase 😉

 

I wasn't for a minute suggesting that it would be an overnight change, simply that there would be a point where change starts and that there then might follow a disproportionate change in order to 'encourage' us to change our cars.

 

And as at this point in time we have no idea when that might be, although today's comments by Grant Shapps that the new ICE ban might even be brought forward to 2032 perhaps gives us an idea .... 

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A very clever way to shift the blame for the govt. not being able to achieve targets on the environment.

 

After the consultation "Well we wanted to be ambitious but the SMMT said it just wasn't achievable".

 

Though I see the SMMT are being very tight lipped about the proposal to bring the date forward after they expressed concern about the original date.

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For me, the economics of EVs aren't there yet - no EV presently on sale can do everything I need so I'd still need an IC vehicle but secondhand EVs are still expensive, around £5000 for an i-MIEV / PSA clone or around £8000 for a Zoe (with owned battery, not leased) - for around £2000 I can get a Toyota Aygo / PSA clone of similar age although that only saves about half the fuel that an EV would, but could be used for more of our journeys so saving the same overall.

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CO2 Emissions Targets for 2021

 

Any car manufacturer that fails to reduce its CO2 emissions to its target for 2021 will face a fine, they must average across all cars sold 95g/km.

The fine is 95 Euros for every 1g over the target multiplied by all of its volume of sales, so for a manufacturer that sell 500,000 cars that equates to 50m euros.

 

Because it is multinational and applies across the range the SMMT says you could find manufacturers actually denying customers their choice of car, and restricting sales of petrol & diesel derivatives forcing customers in to electric cars.

 

It could also mean longer delays on delivery times, the throughput at factories being slowed and the laying off of workforces for suppliers and dealers.

 

Not helped by the electric car subsidy being dropped to £3,500 from £4,500 and the removal of the £2,500 grant for hybrids.

 

So no real solution to the infrastructure, no real solution to battery technology, no real solution to reducing range anxiety, no real solution for reducing the cost of electric cars, but an unrealistic target set by EU to be achieved in less that a year. - A genius way to fill the coffers though, and stuff everyone else!

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3 hours ago, PandR said:

There is virtually no recycling taking place today for rechargeable Lithium batteries.

 

The whole mining of these rare earth metals is both an environmental disaster and carries a massive Carbon footprint. That's before they are all attempted to be recycled.

 

Makes oil and gas look like clean energy.

 

Disagree with you on Hydrogen. Japan for example has more Hydrogen EVs than battery and fuel cell technology produces electricity. 

 

So yes the electric car is the future, but powered by Hydrogen fuel cells. We already have the technology to be able to fill a small Hydrogen tank CF LPG. The petrol stations can be upgraded to pump Hydrogen instead of petrol or diesel.

 

Hydrogen (H2) is the most abundant molecule  on earth and when it's produced its electricity then it returns to its most prolific form, water.

 

So true recycling without the murky business of big mining.

 

 

 

Lithium-ion is recyclable and has second line use for energy storage. Birmingham university are running a project to make recycling them more efficient. Pulling any resource out of the planet has environmental issues. Where is the outcry for the lithium used in millions upon millions of mobile phones, tablets, laptops, power tools and even domestic vacuum cleaners. 

 

Hydrogen has been around for years but is still mainly used in the commercial sector. Toyota developed a car in the 1990's and gave its hydrogen technology away free to the motor industry to try and develop it further. How many commercials have you seen pushing hydrogen recently against the now many newly launched BEV's. Elon Musk referred to hydrogen being the "Fool Cell" for the private sector.

 

We’ll have to agree to disagree but let’s see what’s happens in the not so far future.  "The proof is in the pudding"

 

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Car manufacturers could ensure they meet the rules by withdrawing certain models from the EU market place. For example Mk1 Tiguans are still being manufactured and sold in Africa.

I thought the CO2 emissions were worked out across the entire amount of vehicles they manufactured. Hence they all want electric and hybrids in their line up.

 

Target levels

New EU fleet-wide CO2 emission targets are set for the years 2025 and 2030, both for newly registered passenger cars and newly registered vans.

These targets are defined as a percentage reduction from the 2021 starting points:

Cars: 15% reduction from 2025 on and 37.5% reduction from 2030 on

Vans: 15% reduction from 2025 on and 31% reduction from 2030 on

The specific emission targets for manufacturers to comply with, are based on the EU fleet-wide targets, taking into account the average test mass of a manufacturer's newly registered vehicles.

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34 minutes ago, Grandpa Steve said:

...Because it is multinational and applies across the range the SMMT says you could find manufacturers actually denying customers their choice of car, and restricting sales of petrol & diesel derivatives forcing customers in to electric cars...

I've already heard that Mazda will be restricting imports of 2.0 litre MX-5s, forcing people to buy 1.5s

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1 hour ago, Grandpa Steve said:

CO2 Emissions Targets for 2021

 

Any car manufacturer that fails to reduce its CO2 emissions to its target for 2021 will face a fine, they must average across all cars sold 95g/km.

The fine is 95 Euros for every 1g over the target multiplied by all of its volume of sales, so for a manufacturer that sell 500,000 cars that equates to 50m euros.

 

Because it is multinational and applies across the range the SMMT says you could find manufacturers actually denying customers their choice of car, and restricting sales of petrol & diesel derivatives forcing customers in to electric cars.

 

It could also mean longer delays on delivery times, the throughput at factories being slowed and the laying off of workforces for suppliers and dealers.

 

Not helped by the electric car subsidy being dropped to £3,500 from £4,500 and the removal of the £2,500 grant for hybrids.

 

So no real solution to the infrastructure, no real solution to battery technology, no real solution to reducing range anxiety, no real solution for reducing the cost of electric cars, but an unrealistic target set by EU to be achieved in less that a year. - A genius way to fill the coffers though, and stuff everyone else!

 

Sales of cars in the UK from 2021 onwards don't count towards the total - only cars sold in the EU are counted in the penalty calculation.

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1 hour ago, Silverback said:

 

Lithium-ion is recyclable and has second line use for energy storage. Birmingham university are running a project to make recycling them more efficient. Pulling any resource out of the planet has environmental issues. Where is the outcry for the lithium used in millions upon millions of mobile phones, tablets, laptops, power tools and even domestic vacuum cleaners.

 

There are lots of people looking at stuff  like this but the reality here and now is that this stuff is not getting recyled. You only need to pull apart the plastic shell (we can't even recylce much plastic) to figure out the difficulties. And let's look at the scale of the problem, a phone the has equivalent of one cell, a laptop maybe a dozen. A Tesla has 10,000 cells (similar in size to AA batteries).

 

We have 40 million cars in the UK. I *think* that means recycling 4,000,000,000,000 every 3 or 4 years. I don't even know how to pronounce that number!

 

Hydrogen has been around for years but is still mainly used in the commercial sector. Toyota developed a car in the 1990's and gave its hydrogen technology away free to the motor industry to try and develop it further.

 

I think you will found the car back then used Hydrogen in an ICE. Now the Hydrogen just creates electricity so instead of charging 10,000 batteries, you pump in some hydrogen and it produces the electricity. The remainder of the EV technology is the same.

 

How many commercials have you seen pushing hydrogen recently against the now many newly launched BEV's. Elon Musk referred to hydrogen being the "Fool Cell" for the private sector.

 

Well, just because Musk has a big mouth and is producing batteries by the bucket load doesn't mean he will be correct. Japan, China and South Korea have ambitious plans to further develop Hydrogen fuel cell technology and I'd put my money there rather than with some stoned, arrogant yank.

 

 

We’ll have to agree to disagree but let’s see what’s happens in the not so far future.  "The proof is in the pudding"

 

 

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3 hours ago, PandR said:

 

 

Firstly I love the red text ♥️

 

Obviously you disagree to disagree 😉

 

Hydrogen was first developed in the 90's both in combustion and in fuel cells. Hyundai kicked off their hydrogen fuel cell in 2001.  Toyota & Hyundai fuel cell vehicles have been running for what 5- 6 years ... How many sold todate ? 

 

Not to sure why you expect lithium-ion battery to be scrapped after 3 or 4 years of use & you don't even know this will be the common battery used by that time. I would worry more about the battery your holding now within in your smart phone.  Can't understand your prediction of 40 million traction batteries that will require recycling within the next 15 years.

 

"Stoned arrogant Yank" well Musk has had his problems for sure but heading up Space X and carrying the young motor manufacture Tesla to be valued more than VW at 102 billion US dollars maybe worth some respect. 

 

Like I say ... Lets all wait and see 👍

 

 

Just for info ... The new e-tron can tow 1800kg and it's out now, though personally I wouldn't purchase one. Not because of the traction battery, because I'd never buy VAG vehicle 🤮  

 

https://www.whatcar.com/audi/e-tron/estate/review/n18397

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Its now changed from 2035 to 2032.   Stated in today's news

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Just now, Babstreefern said:

Its now changed from 2035 to 2032.   Stated in today's news

 

👍

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13 minutes ago, Babstreefern said:

Its now changed from 2035 to 2032.   Stated in today's news

 

Not quite, lets not have 'fake news' perpetrated here thank you very much.

 

Both dates are subject to parliamentary approval and bringing the date forward is subject to consultation and is merely a suggestion..

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5 hours ago, The Happy Gnome said:

 

Not quite, lets not have 'fake news' perpetrated here thank you very much.

 

Both dates are subject to parliamentary approval and bringing the date forward is subject to consultation and is merely a suggestion..

 

Can't help but think that when he mentioned 2032 Grant Shapps was engaging in a bit of political "kite flying".  The cynic in me can't help but think it is all about "being seen to be saying the right thing", the government haven't consulted with the motor industry about the revised dates that have been 'proposed' which I find surprising.

 

I've no doubt some in government would be very happy to see this thread, they sow the seed of an idea and within a short time people are quoting the idea as fact.

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