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Wellys and Mac

No more Diesel or Petrol cars after 2035.

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2 hours ago, Fat Albert said:

I totally agree that compatibility is a major issue and would require unprecedented cooperation between manufacturers. But something radical needs to be done if there is to be a workable long term solution to make EVs practical for everyday use. Until battery technology improves massively to make them both more efficient and much quicker to recharge the whole push to ban the ICE is daft, imho of course.

Another serious consideration is emergency vehicles - not much use having a fire engine or ambulance on charge if it’s urgently needed. 

The other major issue, with no solution in sight, is power generation and distribution.

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10 minutes ago, Durbanite said:

It must be remembered that it is unlikely that the current government will still be in power in 2035.  In the meantime that can make as many empty promises as they like now as by 2035 the legislation has been replaced by other legislation when they realised they would not have sufficient electric to power all the EVs especially in the winter months!

 

People said that about Coal, they are saying it about gas, they are saying it about cars.

 

But the momentum is there now and the younger generation have  global warming drilled into them.

 

I think we'll see successive Governments push to be more green to gain the Younger voters.

 

There are mechanisms in place to ensure we have sufficient energy capacity.

 

It's the local infrastructure investment that is unkown at this point.  

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In the next ten years we will build ten new 4GW power stations.  They will all run on petrol or diesel.  Problem solved!  I should be in government!

 

(irony alert)

Edited by kelper
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1 hour ago, Durbanite said:

It must be remembered that it is unlikely that the current government will still be in power in 2035.  In the meantime that can make as many empty promises as they like now as by 2035 the legislation has been replaced by other legislation when they realised they would not have sufficient electric to power all the EVs especially in the winter months!

 

You say unlikely but that depends how long it takes the Labour party to realise that left-wing militants will never win a general election - we could be looking at 2030 before they make a serious challenge and no better than 50-50 chance of success.

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In reality the estimated demand is looked at decades in advance. But only nuclear requires that amount of planning.

 

The current T-1 and T-4 capacity market auctions ensures we have enough maximum demand four years in advance. 

We had a T-3 Auction this year as a one off as the market was suspended for a year but there is another T-4 auction next month. for winter 23/24.

 

If you want to know where your power will come from in the winter of 22/23 then look here.

 

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity Markets Document Library/Provisional Auction Results for T-3 2019 (DY22_23).pdf

 

You will see there's also 15 year deals signed for new builds.

 

The Change from Coal to Gas and renewables was done over the last decade by taxation and subsidies. Going forward the carbon tax on gas will increase to a point where the market shifts to another source.

 

Nuclear because of the costs, lead times and guaranteed future prices is set by government. 

 

What replaces Gas is still not answered but will be, the mechanisms in place will ensure demand is met. (But it's tight)

But let's be honest it's this system that has raised energy prices, not the greed of the big generators as the Government want you to believe.

 

It's what happens when the power leaves the powerstations that has little funding and no current mechanism to finance the upgrades.

 

Edited by logiclee

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7 hours ago, logiclee said:

In reality the estimated demand is looked at decades in advance. But only nuclear requires that amount of planning.

 

The current T-1 and T-4 capacity market auctions ensures we have enough maximum demand four years in advance. 

We had a T-3 Auction this year as a one off as the market was suspended for a year but there is another T-4 auction next month. for winter 23/24.

 

If you want to know where your power will come from in the winter of 22/23 then look here.

 

https://www.emrdeliverybody.com/Capacity Markets Document Library/Provisional Auction Results for T-3 2019 (DY22_23).pdf

 

You will see there's also 15 year deals signed for new builds.

 

The Change from Coal to Gas and renewables was done over the last decade by taxation and subsidies. Going forward the carbon tax on gas will increase to a point where the market shifts to another source.

 

Nuclear because of the costs, lead times and guaranteed future prices is set by government. 

 

What replaces Gas is still not answered but will be, the mechanisms in place will ensure demand is met. (But it's tight)

But let's be honest it's this system that has raised energy prices, not the greed of the big generators as the Government want you to believe.

 

It's what happens when the power leaves the powerstations that has little funding and no current mechanism to finance the upgrades.

 

So by 2035 we would need an additional 50pct of power generation to replace all cars with electric.

 

How feasible is that?

 

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37 minutes ago, PandR said:

So by 2035 we would need an additional 50pct of power generation to replace all cars with electric.

 

How feasible is that?

 

These might be part of the answer?

 

https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/innovation/2017/smr.aspx#solution

https://www.rolls-royce.com/products-and-services/nuclear/small-modular-reactors.aspx#/

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Not saying a word.

18A1408E-B2AE-420D-AD76-A722F25CA148.jpeg

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39 minutes ago, Will deBeast said:

Lol. It's a concept.

 

In the IT Software business we used to have another name for this kind of idea - vapourware.

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3 minutes ago, PandR said:

Lol. It's a concept.

 

In the IT Software business we used to have another name for this kind of idea - vapourware.

It might be a concept now but RR do currently make small scale power generation plants based on gas turbines plus don't they make the nuclear on UK submarines?

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This is the report that led to the Government announcement.  https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmsctech/1454/1454.pdf

 

It contains this interesting sentence: "In the long-term, widespread personal vehicle ownership does not appear to be compatible with significant decarbonisation."

 

So ... we may not need all those charging points!

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Johnny Cabs from the film “Total Recall”!

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9 hours ago, GaryB1969 said:

Johnny Cabs from the film “Total Recall”!

 

Nearly every car manufacturer involved in automation has said that's the only way forward.

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10 hours ago, MrRVW said:

Not saying a word.

18A1408E-B2AE-420D-AD76-A722F25CA148.jpeg

This is funny but rubbish; the heater in the leaf keeps the car toasty warm but does take 10miles off the range. However if you are not moving you use almost no electricity at all with led headlights etc so in a huge jam you are probably the most efficient car on the road. jams or very slow speeds extend the range of a leccy car significantly.

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On 04/02/2020 at 08:28, Black Grouse said:

 

Agreed, that's the bigger part of the announcement - that hybrids and PHEVs will be included in the sales ban - GM have already announced they're by-passing the hybrid/PHEV phase of development and focussing solely on battery EVs.

 

Hybrids are just a stepping stone on route to pure EV's.  In the UK the popularity of hybrids appears to be driven by the tax system,  the incentive of lower taxes being the justification for buying hybrids, which is perverse as it results in some people buying the cars based on tax incentive and then not using the electric element of the hybrid system.  I think the GM route directly to EV's makes sense, putting all their effort into EV's (which are the long term future)  rather than developing  complex expensive cars which in the bigger scheme of things are nothing more than a stop gap. 

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7 minutes ago, jetA1 said:

 

Hybrids are just a stepping stone on route to pure EV's.  In the UK the popularity of hybrids appears to be driven by the tax system,  the incentive of lower taxes being the justification for buying hybrids, which is perverse as it results in some people buying the cars based on tax incentive and then not using the electric element of the hybrid system.  I think the GM route directly to EV's makes sense, putting all their effort into EV's (which are the long term future)  rather than developing  complex expensive cars which in the bigger scheme of things are nothing more than a stop gap. 

 

The big irony is that GM were ahead of the game with their Voltec range extender technology, aka Vauxhall Ampera, but they didn't expand their model range and subsequently dropped it.

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1 hour ago, Jezzerb said:

This is funny but rubbish; the heater in the leaf keeps the car toasty warm but does take 10miles off the range. However if you are not moving you use almost no electricity at all with led headlights etc so in a huge jam you are probably the most efficient car on the road. jams or very slow speeds extend the range of a leccy car significantly.

 

There maybe a need for heat regardless of whether the vehicle is moving, creating heat from electricity can be efficient but you still need the energy source in the first place. A traffic jam of EV's in freezing temperatures could create problems for the occupants, with the driver having to compromise between heat and range. I'm not against EV's, I'm not looking to simply find the negative points of EV's, but the winter driving scenario could present a particular challenge.  

Edited by jetA1

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8 minutes ago, jetA1 said:

 

...In the UK the popularity of hybrids appears to be driven by the tax system...

I agree.  It's all to do with BIK tax for company car drivers.

 

I hear lots of tales of mitsubishi Phevs being handed back at the end of their lease, with the charging cables still in their plastic bag, unopened.  This is a huge waste of the planet's resources.

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54 minutes ago, Will deBeast said:

I agree.  It's all to do with BIK tax for company car drivers.

 

I hear lots of tales of mitsubishi Phevs being handed back at the end of their lease, with the charging cables still in their plastic bag, unopened.  This is a huge waste of the planet's resources.

 

The big push for hybrid is mainly not due to the UK tax system but due to EU legislation that mandates manufacturers to achieve an average of 95g/km on WLTP.

Something they can't do with straight internal combustion engines on the vast majority of cars/SUV's.

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6 minutes ago, logiclee said:

 

The big push for hybrid is mainly not due to the UK tax system but due to EU legislation that mandates manufacturers to achieve an average of 95g/km on WLTP.

Something they can't do with straight internal combustion engines on the vast majority of cars/SUV's.

 

That's the reason they're making hybrids - but the lower BIK is the reason they're being bought

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30 minutes ago, Black Grouse said:

 

That's the reason they're making hybrids - but the lower BIK is the reason they're being bought

 

In the UK but development budgets and strategy of global vehicle manufacturers is not decided by UK business leases. 

VAG boss has said the only reason mild hybrid tech exists is because of the 95g/km legislation.

Edited by logiclee

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24 minutes ago, logiclee said:

 

In the UK but development budgets and strategy of global vehicle manufacturers is not decided by UK business leases. 

VAG boss has said the only reason mild hybrid tech exists is because of the 95g/km legislation.

 

I understand that it's the 95g/km at Europe level that is the real driver, but as BG says the UK tax system has a lot to do with why people are buying them in the UK. I understand that only by lowering the target level will manufacturers actually be challenged to develop new vehicles but given the long term aim is pure EV (or should that be zero tail pipe emissions - allowing for other technologies)  then isn't this intermediate stage  of hybrids a rather inefficient way of spending development budgets.  In the bigger scheme of things the hybrid generation is going to be very short lived. 

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1 hour ago, jetA1 said:

 

There maybe a need for heat regardless of whether the vehicle is moving, creating heat from electricity can be efficient but you still need the energy source in the first place. A traffic jam of EV's in freezing temperatures could create problems for the occupants, with the driver having to compromise between heat and range. I'm not against EV's, I'm not looking to simply find the negative points of EV's, but the winter driving scenario could present a particular challenge.  

Not at all-the air source heat pump in the leaf uses very little electricity. Cold weather has a worse effect on the battery range altogether ie it's cold-kills the battery but you know this before you go out. Anyway you can always pull over and charge up-plenty of mway chargers-better than in towns!

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3 hours ago, Jezzerb said:

the heater in the leaf keeps the car toasty warm but does take 10miles off the range. However if you are not moving you use almost no electricity at all

 

I don't think you are understanding the physics of this.  We are talking about needing the heater while stationary in a traffic jam. Heaters use a large amount of electricity.  How much range the heater takes off will depends drastically on the nature and time duration of the journey.

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Don't give a damn, i'll be long gone anyway.  :P

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