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I'm guessing at Lowdham. 

Graham

 

Unless otherwise stated all posts are my personal opinion 

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I would have thought that if someone can afford the price of a new motor home , a couple of thousand more on tax wont make a lot of difference .  My thoughts are that the caravan makers are spending t

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Ignore the profit. What was the cash flow?  

3 hours ago, AndersG said:

Ignore the profit. What was the cash flow?

 

The cash flow may well make the situation completely unsustainable. 

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It’s always cash flow that gets them in the end. 

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Didn’t Coachman just say that their order book was full and they had recovered any sales cancelled by people because of the virus? Why are Swift different ?

Bessacarr Cameo 525 towed by SsangYong Rexton 2.2 auto in Brown.

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It's not just cash flow, it's borrowings as well. Although interest rates are relatively low some of the banks and investors may be looking to try and liquidate some of their cash.

 

On top of that, look how much stuff that goes into a caravan comes from abroad. I'm sure there's a bit of uncertainty there as well

 

Virtually all of these firms have lost three months worth of production and they wont be able to get back up to anywhere like full speed with the ongoing restrictions (and the additional costs that they'll incur) so I guess their income will be drastically reduced this year.

 

We've got a new Bailey on order which should have been delivered around the middle of May and our dealer has been pretty good at trying to keep us upto date, but Bailey haven't restarted yet. Our dealer has also said that they've already had a lot of cancellations because of the uncertainty. we are still going aheadad because we can but there will be a lot of people out there who can't.

 

I'm wondering what will happen to the S/H market - will there be a glut of people trying to flog their vans because they cant afford to sustain it or will there be a dearth of them because people will want to buy because they are unwilling to travel abroad but those who've already got a van might be hanging onto them rather than upgrading.

 

Interesting times, not much fun for those who will lose their jobs. 

Just now, ivan leslie said:

Didn’t Coachman just say that their order book was full and they had recovered any sales cancelled by people because of the virus? Why are Swift different ?

they may have a different business model and may be in hock up to their eyeballs - who knows.

 

The company with whom I was employed for 35 years saw their shares plummet from $140 to 20c in around three week when they went belly up and it was one of the largest telecom firms in the world. I was fortunate that I left (made redundant/early retirement) whilst it was still just about a going concern but in the end it crashed and burned and well over 60,000 employees worldwide lost their  jobs (and a lot of them their pensions as well)

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My guess is that they will close off the 2020 model year as soon as they go back and start preparing to build 2021MY immediately without an August shutdown. Whether they will fulfil orders for 2020 vans or renegotiate for 2021 equivalents is debatable.

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3 hours ago, WispMan said:

I'm guessing at Lowdham. 

Do Lowdham manufacture motorhomes? 

I thought they were Caravan and Motorhome dealers.

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4 hours ago, WispMan said:

I'm guessing at Lowdham. 

No, Wellhouse Leisure, a manufacturer. A couple of weeks ago they had their best ever sales in one day apparently. 

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45 minutes ago, nigel207 said:

No, Wellhouse Leisure, a manufacturer. A couple of weeks ago they had their best ever sales in one day apparently. 

 

From what I read they sold seven camper vans in one day and the phones are ringing continuously.

 

Ian

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7 minutes ago, Tandem Man said:

 

From what I read they sold seven camper vans in one day and the phones are ringing continuously.

 

Ian

Yes. I know the owner and he couldn’t believe how things have gone.

1958 Morris Minor towing 2012 Hobby Landhaus

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3 hours ago, matelodave said:

It's not just cash flow, it's borrowings as well. Although interest rates are relatively low some of the banks and investors may be looking to try and liquidate some of their cash.

 

On top of that, look how much stuff that goes into a caravan comes from abroad. I'm sure there's a bit of uncertainty there as well

 

Virtually all of these firms have lost three months worth of production and they wont be able to get back up to anywhere like full speed with the ongoing restrictions (and the additional costs that they'll incur) so I guess their income will be drastically reduced this year.

 

We've got a new Bailey on order which should have been delivered around the middle of May and our dealer has been pretty good at trying to keep us upto date, but Bailey haven't restarted yet. Our dealer has also said that they've already had a lot of cancellations because of the uncertainty. we are still going aheadad because we can but there will be a lot of people out there who can't.

 

I'm wondering what will happen to the S/H market - will there be a glut of people trying to flog their vans because they cant afford to sustain it or will there be a dearth of them because people will want to buy because they are unwilling to travel abroad but those who've already got a van might be hanging onto them rather than upgrading.

 

Interesting times, not much fun for those who will lose their jobs. 

they may have a different business model and may be in hock up to their eyeballs - who knows.

 

The company with whom I was employed for 35 years saw their shares plummet from $140 to 20c in around three week when they went belly up and it was one of the largest telecom firms in the world. I was fortunate that I left (made redundant/early retirement) whilst it was still just about a going concern but in the end it crashed and burned and well over 60,000 employees worldwide lost their  jobs (and a lot of them their pensions as well)

 

matelodave

 

i believe you and I worked for the same Telecomms company. They entered Chapter 11 Protection in the USA and eventually entered into a reverse takeover with Telewest thus to take on the Virgin franchise. 

 

I was fortunate enough to get out in early 2000 but I am aware that for many hundreds of colleagues and investors the collapse of the company was disastrous.  Indeed, debt was the killer as the company took on debt in order to acquire other companies. They just couldn’t service it eventually or repay the bonds issued to their major shareholders. Interesting days. A lesson from history perhaps. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Riverdee said:

 

matelodave

 

i believe you and I worked for the same Telecomms company. They entered Chapter 11 Protection in the USA and eventually entered into a reverse takeover with Telewest thus to take on the Virgin franchise. 

 

I was fortunate enough to get out in early 2000 but I am aware that for many hundreds of colleagues and investors the collapse of the company was disastrous.  Indeed, debt was the killer as the company took on debt in order to acquire other companies. They just couldn’t service it eventually or repay the bonds issued to their major shareholders. Interesting days. A lesson from history perhaps. 

 

 

My company, Nortel Networks, was a very large company based in Canada and it had a major impact on the Canadian stockmarket - it went bust in 2009.  Here's the sad and sorry saga - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel#:~:text=When Nortel's stock crashed%2C it,left 60%2C000 Nortel employees unemployed.

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matlodave.

No, I worked for NTL, the second largest Chapter 11 filing in history. Their shares were  around 140 dollars and ended at 2 cents in the space of a couple of months. 

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Chapter 11 is a disgrace. I worked for a DANA subsidiary here and lost all my shares bought through the company share scheme. We were sold off to US slash it and burn it company a year before they went under.

 

This was a large automotive company and there is still litigation from the US shareholders going on I believe after nearly 20 years.

 

Back to Caravans, they all have large turnovers as most of the parts are bought it, but the profit on a van is very low due to the high labour costs. Quantity is king for this business. I think Elddis in 2017 had their best ever year production wise at the time, 4500 vans and 1500 MH's , but I think the profits were less than 5%.

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13 hours ago, matelodave said:

My company, Nortel Networks, was a very large company based in Canada and it had a major impact on the Canadian stockmarket - it went bust in 2009.  Here's the sad and sorry saga - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel#:~:text=When Nortel's stock crashed%2C it,left 60%2C000 Nortel employees unemployed.

 

What an amazing and sad story.

How prophetic that the company discovered in 2004 that the Chinese had penetrated the company a decade previously and had been stealing info all that time

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel

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35 minutes ago, ancell said:

 

What an amazing and sad story.

How prophetic that the company discovered in 2004 that the Chinese had penetrated the company a decade previously and had been stealing info all that time

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel

The interesting bit 'The fall of Nortel coincided with the rise of Huawei.' OK so it's wiki and may not be 100% correct but gets you thinking.

No wonder USA is so anti Huawei!!!!!

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12 minutes ago, ancell said:

 

What an amazing and sad story.

How prophetic that the company discovered in 2004 that the Chinese had penetrated the company a decade previously and had been stealing info all that time

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nortel

TBH it wasn't ever so difficult for the Chinese  - we had technology transfer arrangements with them for years as did the other UK telecoms manufacturers (remeber GEC, Plessy etc) so they just reverse engineered a lot of it. They also have a lot of very clever technical people who soak up info like sponges. I went there on several occasions in the late 80's and gave them presentations in the 90's for new projects which we as a company installed and commissioned and I guess they just took it to bits to figure out how it worked.. 

 

Some technology was embargoed but as we all know they still come to study & work over in the West and then just take that knowledge back with them - it didn't really take a great deal in the way of "espionage". We as a country are prettu good at giving our technology away or letting others buy it - just look at ARM in Cambridge, sold to the Japanese ( https://www.borntoengineer.com/britains-successful-technology-company-arm-sold-japans-softbank-24bn )

 

In 2003 a couple of years after I retired I went to Pakistan as a consultant to evaluate tenders for a big multi-million telecoms project and of the five vendors that tendered for transmission equipment three were Chinese and two European (no UK).

The European costs were three times more expensive than the Chinese tenders, which virtually blew them out of the water (probably deliberately, so they wouldn't get selected). One of the Chinese companies were offering kit that was virtually identical to GEC equipment, I didn't see any that was overtly Nortel though some of it had remarkable similarities to one of the European equipment

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And back to the topic in hand...…………………………….

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Graham

 

Unless otherwise stated all posts are my personal opinion 

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This thread started in January when Swift announced redundancies. There was speculation that it was all down to the Taxation increases (which I dont think was the issue). Brexit speculation and the virus have been subject of further speculation. The recent press report doesn't mention Swift as far as I can see.

Has there been any factual information from Swift?

Edited by Ern

Ern

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Ern. 

Correct. The article in the local paper and the letter from local MPs talks about the local caravan industry not specifically Swift. 

 

What is concerning is the current silence from Swift on everything not just the recall. Even requests on here for information go unanswered. In such circumstances rumours, whether correct or otherwise, will surface and persist. Remember, the company was to close one factory and reduce the number of employees before the virus struck. The  lack of contact from the company isn’t helping anyone. In fact, the longer the silence goes on then the more concerns I have.

 

Swift owe it to their stakeholders and potential and current end users, to start making contact. Let us see. 

Edited by Riverdee
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The announcement was made in January, possibly given the upswing in the industry Swift might be regretting that decision. Given the announcement from Coachman it does look as though the industry will come out of this relatively well.

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Bare in mind a LOT of stuff ( locker doors/ handles etc ) come from Italy...............

Skoda Scout 4x4 pulling a coachman Amara 520/4 at 93%---- when full!

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Took our 'van in for service on Wednesday. Enquired about the spare keys I ordered in February. Tech said they would check to see if they had come in. He said if not, Swift are in shutdown until September!

 

Cheers

Keith

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29 minutes ago, rslsys said:

Took our 'van in for service on Wednesday. Enquired about the spare keys I ordered in February. Tech said they would check to see if they had come in. He said if not, Swift are in shutdown until September!

 

Cheers

Keith

If thats right it means people waiting for delivery have to wait until the year end, and people waiting for a factory repair will lose the whole season! Unbelievable!

Ern

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