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Towtug

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The SMMT report a 25% fall in car sales and some of that is understandable with the government "outlawing" diesels and to some degree other ICEs.

But what's stopping you buying or changing caravans. 

Has the market been saturated? Or are there other reasons.

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Lack of consumer confidence? Uncertainty over future 6 months Winter trips to Spain/cost and/or faff of getting visas? Worries over job security? A myriad of other reasons/possible explanations. Need to keep monitoring the economic/market reports.

Steve

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If you have a good van with no damp and everything working, why risk changing for a leaking monster?

 

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12 hours ago, Towtug said:

The SMMT report a 25% fall in car sales and some of that is understandable with the government "outlawing" diesels and to some degree other ICEs.

But what's stopping you buying or changing caravans. 

Has the market been saturated? Or are there other reasons.

 

A couple of dealers in East of Scotland are absolutely bursting with unsold new caravans, they'd normally be selling off the demonstrators now to make way for the 2020 model year - Kircaldy Caravans is one but I can't remember where we passed the other!

 

Uncertainty over brexit is making many people just "wait and see" before committing to a big expense.

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Just now, Brecon said:

If you have a good van with no damp and everything working, why risk changing for a leaking monster?

 

If you read this forum, that's always been the case, people still changed their Van's.  So what's stopping them now.

4 minutes ago, marchie1053 said:

Lack of consumer confidence? Uncertainty over future 6 months Winter trips to Spain/cost and/or faff of getting visas? Worries over job security? A myriad of other reasons/possible explanations. Need to keep monitoring the economic/market reports.

Steve

But surely at least half of the country are expecting great things so market confidence cant be the whole reason.

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12 hours ago, Black Grouse said:

 

A couple of dealers in East of Scotland are absolutely bursting with unsold new caravans, they'd normally be selling off the demonstrators now to make way for the 2020 model year - Kircaldy Caravans is one but I can't remember where we passed the other!

 

Uncertainty over brexit is making many people just "wait and see" before committing to a big expense.

Wallace Caravans, about 1.5 miles up the road on the edge of Thornton?

Steve

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What’s stopping me?  Nothing, apart from I’m very happy with the one I’ve got.

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2 minutes ago, FrankBullet said:

What’s stopping me?  Nothing, apart from I’m very happy with the one I’ve got.

Glad to hear it FB. But something has changed, from the earlier posts dealers yards are full of unsold Van's, they are the ones who tell the manufacturers how many they need each year how have they got it so wrong.

The economy is supposedly going OK and the country has close to full employment, so what are the reasons.

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34 minutes ago, Towtug said:

If you read this forum, that's always been the case, people still changed their Van's.  So what's stopping them now.

But surely at least half of the country are expecting great things so market confidence cant be the whole reason.

Perhaps the half who expect great things are not caravanners? I know that we live in interesting times, but, just now, I'd settle for some stability and certainty ...

Steve

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1 minute ago, Towtug said:

Glad to hear it FB. But something has changed, from the earlier posts dealers yards are full of unsold Van's, they are the ones who tell the manufacturers how many they need each year how have they got it so wrong.

The economy is supposedly going OK and the country has close to full employment, so what are the reasons.

 

Aaah, generally rather than me - simple, the economic slow down and the likely recession around the corner.

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2 minutes ago, Towtug said:

Glad to hear it FB. But something has changed, from the earlier posts dealers yards are full of unsold Van's, they are the ones who tell the manufacturers how many they need each year how have they got it so wrong.

The economy is supposedly going OK and the country has close to full employment, so what are the reasons.

The numbers in work are high, but there have been regular reports over the last 2 years or so that many people are not fully/productively employed and are being kept on for the promised recovery. Business investment is falling, sizeable job losses are still expected as businesses relocate to European bases, so perhaps people are just sitting tight? I've not seen or read any specific reports but Costains have issued a further profits warning [and its housebuilding arm that was valued recently at £300 million is now forecast to realise closer to £150 million; Evans Halshaw has downgraded its recovery forecast and its Chief Exec, only appointed 3 months ago, has just quit. And Sterling is bumping along at about €1.113; if the economy was as strong as many would have us believe, the exchange rate would be higher. The threat of No Deal lingers on.

Steve

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I suspect it's mainly due to a fairly predictable trough in the market. Looking at Facebook groups there's been a lot of brand new caravanners in the past few years and it's unlikely that they will all stay with the pass time.

 

Most people seem blissfully unaware of what's potentially about to happen to the economy apart from those at businesses already affected (car manufacturers for example). I suspect next year could be very chaotic for caravan manufacturers.

 

 

 

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12 hours ago, marchie1053 said:

Evans Halshaw has downgraded its recovery forecast and its Chief Exec, only appointed 3 months ago, has just quit.

Steve

Not surprised at Evans Halshaw failing as customer service is terrible.  Shopping around for a vehicle last year and raising queries with them was terrible.  Calls answered but rep would not have a clue about the vehicle and not even know where it was located.  Eventually we arranged an appointment to view a vehicle that fitted our requirements.  On arrival told to take a seat.  Appointment time came and went.  Stupidly we still waited.  Eventually said we were leaving.  A young girl came out and said she had the keys for the vehicle.  The vehicle was parked in the middle of a clump of cars and would have taken 1/2 hour to get it out.  We walked away!

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I was interested in a Volvo Evans Halshaw had for sale. Two emails and two phone calls failed to get them to take me seriously so i purchased one from elsewhere.  They still have it for sale......

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13 minutes ago, GaryB1969 said:

I was interested in a Volvo Evans Halshaw had for sale. Two emails and two phone calls failed to get them to take me seriously so i purchased one from elsewhere.  They still have it for sale......

When I had my Nisan Almera took it to them for first service they wanted it all day so took it down early in the morning.  I returned late afternoon and noticed it parked just as I left it, they had forgotten to do the service ! 

I think the girl on service reception was a bit upset as she had to loan me her demo car for the night.

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Should have added to my earlier post. The professional body of the Chartered Accountants in England & Wales, a body not known for using hyperbole, reported earlier this week that Business Investment is falling rapidly, that London's IT and related services income had shrunk by some 20% [IIRC] over the last 12 months, whilst Germany's had risen by about 30%.

The report went on to say that the Chartered Accountants expected to see a large increase in profit warnings from listed businesses as the impact of reduced investment and loss of orders/markets hits home.

Steve

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19 hours ago, Towtug said:

Glad to hear it FB. But something has changed, from the earlier posts dealers yards are full of unsold Van's, they are the ones who tell the manufacturers how many they need each year how have they got it so wrong.

The economy is supposedly going OK and the country has close to full employment, so what are the reasons.

 

"The country has close to full employment"??

Let's face reality here, a lot of people especially those in the service sector such as restaurants, fast food chains, hotels, retail etc are on zero hour contracts. As far as employment figures are concerned, you do realise that you only have to work an hour a week to be classified as employed.

With the uncertainty over Brexit and the huge numbers of employees not knowing when their next shift is going to be, is it any wonder why people are not spending their hard earned cash.

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I've noticed my dealer only now sells a few s/h caravans, 4 at present.

New caravans a big display including 4 ex-display from 2018.

 

Is the lack of s/h due to a lot less p/x ones or does he have somewhere to sell p/x on to maybe.

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20 hours ago, Towtug said:

The SMMT report a 25% fall in car sales and some of that is understandable with the government "outlawing" diesels and to some degree other ICEs.

But what's stopping you buying or changing caravans. 

I believe it is a combination of uncertainty over future legislation for towing vehicles combined with the current perceived poor quality of many caravan makes.

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It's still brexit ...

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20 hours ago, Towtug said:

 

But what's stopping you buying or changing caravans. 

Has the market been saturated? Or are there other reasons.

 

Simple. The frankly awful build quality of caravans. Had too many each with a raft of problems and usually even more problems getting redress. We have got two cars, both fairly new and very capable tow cars, but the thought of another caravan, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

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17 minutes ago, thebriars said:

 

Simple. The frankly awful build quality of caravans. Had too many each with a raft of problems and usually even more problems getting redress. We have got two cars, both fairly new and very capable tow cars, but the thought of another caravan, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

But the quality thing has been around for years, and only a couple of years ago people were falling over themselves to buy and moreover change up.

I think its deeper than that.

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33 minutes ago, thebriars said:

 

Simple. The frankly awful build quality of caravans. Had too many each with a raft of problems and usually even more problems getting redress. We have got two cars, both fairly new and very capable tow cars, but the thought of another caravan, nooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Could it actually be that the quality of vans, on the whole, is improving, providing less incentive to trade up after a few years?

Granted, all manufacturers produce the odd lemon and far too many have niggling little faults that should never have left the production line, but is the overall quality improving?

 

Just how do the 4,5 and 6 year old vans of today compare with those of (say) 4 years ago?

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So putting it a slightly different way, if you had intended to change your van this year but changed your mind, what stopped you.

1  Lack of new models

2  Lack of an incentive to change

3  Nothing new/caught your eye

4  Market/economic uncertainty 

5  Quality

6  Brexit

 

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3 minutes ago, Towtug said:

So putting it a slightly different way, if you had intended to change your van this year but changed your mind, what stopped you.

1  Lack of new models

2  Lack of an incentive to change

3  Nothing new/caught your eye

4  Market/economic uncertainty 

5  Quality

6  Brexit

 

In order of importance, 3,2,1,5,4and6.

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