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ivan leslie

Government Say Do Not Book Holidays After 30th March.

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30 minutes ago, paulthomas said:

 Roger Bootle is in a minority of two. He and Patrick Minford ( poll tax advocate and "losing the UK's auto industry is a price worth paying for Brexit")  are the sole economists in favour of Brexit.

  The great majority are warning of the economic damage it will cause.

   You will note that, today, businesses are already warning of the  damage uncertainty is causing, and of the disaster that a "no deal" Brexit will cause.

 Who would have thought in 2016 that the forces would have to be on alert as a contingency in any kind of Brexit!

Your first paragraph is obviously and patently untrue. With regard to businesses - if they haven't  been making plans for a no deal they are incompetent. As to the 3500 forces personnel being " on the alert ", if they aren't just going to direct traffic, help moving goods around, assist the aged across the road or similar, it is just another part of project fear.  Do they really expect that those elderly, ignorant leavers to riot ? 

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Preparations are incredibly complex, and expensive, eating up money that should be used for investment.

 An indication of the complexities involved relates to accessing and manufacturing parts. Just one example indicative of the issues; The driveshaft for a Mini crosses the channel four times before it is fitted at Cowley. ..and that's just one component! Multiply that by thousands, millions even, for UK manufacturers and you see the problem. Stockpiling driveshafts etc would also rely on the ability to increase the rate of manufacturing in the EU source countries.  

 Ditto for other manufacturers.

Our businesses have spent 40 plus years "weaving" themselves into EU based systems.  

 Don't even mention those companies that rely on " just in time" deliveries!

  It's a quagmire!

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Just in time was invented by the Japanese as part of Kaizen and adopted by business worldwide. where do some of the parts for Japanese car manufacturer come from? 

Edited by oldboy

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32 minutes ago, paulthomas said:

Preparations are incredibly complex, and expensive, eating up money that should be used for investment.

 An indication of the complexities involved relates to accessing and manufacturing parts. Just one example indicative of the issues; The driveshaft for a Mini crosses the channel four times before it is fitted at Cowley. ..and that's just one component! Multiply that by thousands, millions even, for UK manufacturers and you see the problem. Stockpiling driveshafts etc would also rely on the ability to increase the rate of manufacturing in the EU source countries.  

 Ditto for other manufacturers.

Our businesses have spent 40 plus years "weaving" themselves into EU based systems.  

 Don't even mention those companies that rely on " just in time" deliveries!

  It's a quagmire!

If it's true that a driveshaft crosses the channel four times, it means that the integrated system involves manufacturers in the EU or elsewhere, as well as Britain. Are you seriously suggesting that the businesses will not have been making arrangements to cover this?  Or are you suggesting that, before 29th March, all the UK factories will be closed and the work transferred ? As I really don't think this is likely to happen, your comments are spurious.

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In reply to both previous posts.

 My "spurious" ( a word I tend not to use when responding to posters) comments relate, not to the fact that all U. K. factories will be closed on the 29 th March, but that there will be a big economic hit initially and the likelihood that further investment will be directed towards the EU rather than the U. K.  

 Japanese manufacturers also draw components from the EU.

 What incentives will there be to stay in the U. K. , unless we operate an extremely low tax regime with resulting damage to the NHS, Education, policing etc?

 I, too, think a "no deal" scenario is unlikely, but TM's deal does not appear to have parliamentary support, neither does Norway + or Norway ++ (!).

 God knows what Labour will try to do. ..and meanwhile the clock ticks and businesses scream for clarity.

 It's insane.

Edited by paulthomas

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1 hour ago, paulthomas said:

In reply to both previous posts.

 My "spurious" ( a word I tend not to use when responding to posters) comments relate, not to the fact that all U. K. factories will be closed on the 29 th March, but that there will be a big economic hit initially and the likelihood that further investment will be directed towards the EU rather than the U. K.  

 Japanese manufacturers also draw components from the EU.

 What incentives will there be to stay in the U. K. , unless we operate an extremely low tax regime with resulting damage to the NHS, Education, policing etc?

 I, too, think a "no deal" scenario is unlikely, but TM's deal does not appear to have parliamentary support, neither does Norway + or Norway ++ (!).

 God knows what Labour will try to do. ..and meanwhile the clock ticks and businesses scream for clarity.

 It's insane.

Labour would prefer the government to fall regardless of what was best for the country,Corbyn wants his time as pm more than anything else and will do anything to get it.

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21 minutes ago, Malc Edge said:

Labour would prefer the government to fall regardless of what was best for the country,Corbyn wants his time as pm more than anything else and will do anything to get it.

True.

2 hours ago, ivan leslie said:

Your first paragraph is obviously and patently untrue. With regard to businesses - if they haven't  been making plans for a no deal they are incompetent. As to the 3500 forces personnel being " on the alert ", if they aren't just going to direct traffic, help moving goods around, assist the aged across the road or similar, it is just another part of project fear.  Do they really expect that those elderly, ignorant leavers to riot ? 

Please outline details of other economists who think Brexit is a good idea.

 I try not to post "untruths" as it undermines whatever point I am trying to make.

 I wish, pre referendum, a fair few politicians had tried similarly.

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The so called clever economists have got it wrong on several previous occasions so why should we be gullible and start believing them now when they have no credibility.

A friend who deals a lot with businesses in the EU was telling me about some of the ridiculous import rules the EU has imposed on us.  

Apparently if an EU country like France or Germany are importing a specific item from a country outside the EU, a business in the UK cannot import that same item direct from the country outside the EU.   They have to buy it from the business in the EU country in question who obviously add on their profit margin.

Remember that it is not one sided  this also applies to a business in the UK that is importing a specific item.   Either way at the end of the day it is the consumer that is out of pocket.

The EU is in effect restricting free trade!

Edited by Durbanite
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42 minutes ago, Durbanite said:

The so called clever economists have got it wrong on several previous occasions so why should we be gullible and start believing them now when they have no credibility.

A friend who deals a lot with businesses in the EU was telling me about some of the ridiculous import rules the EU has imposed on us.  

Apparently if an EU country like France or Germany are importing a specific item from a country outside the EU, a business in the UK cannot import that same item direct from the country outside the EU.   They have to buy it from the business in the EU country in question who obviously add on their profit margin.

Remember that it is not one sided  this also applies to a business in the UK that is importing a specific item.   Either way at the end of the day it is the consumer that is out of pocket.

The EU is in effect restricting free trade!

 

Businesses in this country say it is easier to import from a outside country than a fellow country in the EU because of the complexity of the EU .

 

 

Dave

 

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Things that I've ordered in the UK for delivery here in Germany have always arrived without the need for any complex paperwork. I don't know where the problem lies.

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1 hour ago, Durbanite said:

The so called clever economists have got it wrong on several previous occasions so why should we be gullible and start believing them now when they have no credibility.

 

Given your scepticism of the value of economists you might like to peruse the info contained in the Bank of England's comprehensive assessment of the various withdrawal scenarios.   The background and assumptions in the scenarios used are spelt out in detail as is the means of analysis and the possible outcomes.    It would be interesting to hear what reasoned and objective alternative scenarios you think are likely.   

 

https://www. bankofengland. co. uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/EU-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability. pdf?la=en&hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB

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Here is the latest from the EU if we crash out.   It seems to me the fear tactic from the EU is vote for their deals or face the consequence.

 

 

https://www. bbc. co. uk/news/world-europe-46617152

Edited by oldboy

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1 hour ago, CommanderDave said:

 

Businesses in this country say it is easier to import from a outside country than a fellow country in the EU because of the complexity of the EU .

 

 

Dave

 

I don't know which businesses you refer to, care to name them? but certainly my UK business found it much easier to import from the EU than most of the rest of the world.

7 minutes ago, oldboy said:

Here is the latest from the EU if we crash out.   It seems to me the fear tactic from the EU is vote for their deals or face the consequence.

https://www. bbc. co. uk/news/world-europe-46617152

I don't see how it's a 'fear tactic' the EU are looking after it's members interests which is what it should do, it was the UK that stuck two fingers up at them, so why should they break their own rules for the UK?

Edited by Lost in France
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6 minutes ago, Lost in France said:

I don't know which businesses you refer to, care to name them? but certainly my UK business found it much easier to import from the EU than most of the rest of the world.

I don't see how it's a 'fear tactic' the EU are looking after it's members interests which is what it should do, it was the UK that stuck two fingers up at them, so why should they break their own rules for the UK?

They don't want the UK to leave. they need the money to shore up their bankruptcy.  

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I don't see any fear tactic. Fact is that without agreements to the contrary, the UK must be aware that the EU will treat the UK like any other country that doesn't belong to the EU, such as the Congo or Bolivia, just to name two examples.

 

Edited by Lutz

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18 minutes ago, Stockcroft said:

 

Given your scepticism of the value of economists you might like to peruse the info contained in the Bank of England's comprehensive assessment of the various withdrawal scenarios.   The background and assumptions in the scenarios used are spelt out in detail as is the means of analysis and the possible outcomes.    It would be interesting to hear what reasoned and objective alternative scenarios you think are likely.   

 

https://www. bankofengland. co. uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/EU-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability. pdf?la=en&hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB

Does any one on this planet still believe that what that Canadian idiot in charge of the BOE states as he has made numerous miscalculations in the past.   When he is eventually kicked out of his job, he will tootle back to Canada with no worries.

 

BTW it seems that i misunderstood what my friend was saying however he states that anyone can import from any country. When it enters the "EU" then it is taxed (tariffs) at the point of entry.    The tariffs and taxes are determined by the EU and not by the country importing i. e. the UK.

 

For example, when we import lamb from New Zealand, the EU stipulate that we have to pay 40% duties in it. That is before it hits the shops. So in essence,  if we leave the EU and import directly, then NZ lamb could be 40% cheaper.   15% on Japanese cars and cars from outside the EU (but no duties on German or French cars)

 

We cannot even reduce out VAT without the say so of the EU, and we are not allowed to import goods from non EU countries that could be seen as direct competition to the EU.

 

The UK government wanted to reduce / remove taxes on sanitary products, the EU said NO.

 

Now get your yellow vest and be prepared.

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4 minutes ago, Lutz said:

I don't see any fear tactic. Fact is that without agreements to the contrary, the EU is bound to treat the UK like any other country that doesn't belong to the EU, such as the Congo or Bolivia, just as two examples.

Congo or Bolivia is not in the top 20 of the world economy and they don't contribute anything to the EU

Edited by oldboy

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16 minutes ago, oldboy said:

Congo or Bolivia is not in the top 20 of the world economy and they don't contribute anything to the EU

 

That's not the point. What I mean is controls of free movement across the borders, both of people and of goods, and import duties. These are independent of the actual amount of trade between two countries.

 

Edited by Lutz

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32 minutes ago, Stockcroft said:

 

Given your scepticism of the value of economists you might like to peruse the info contained in the Bank of England's comprehensive assessment of the various withdrawal scenarios.   The background and assumptions in the scenarios used are spelt out in detail as is the means of analysis and the possible outcomes.    It would be interesting to hear what reasoned and objective alternative scenarios you think are likely.   

 

https://www. bankofengland. co. uk/-/media/boe/files/report/2018/EU-withdrawal-scenarios-and-monetary-and-financial-stability. pdf?la=en&hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB

This report was published as a "worst case scenario" and this was clearly stated by the Governor at the time. He said "This is not a scenario we think likely to happen, but, we are obliged to enable the BOE to handle it and assure the public that we can". His very words.

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I’ve said before, this isn’t a political problem it’s a mathematical problem.  Man walks into a pub (or a golf club in you prefer Geoff😀) and picks a fight with 27 blokes standing at the bar.  He is going get the carp beaten out of him whether the point is making is right or wrong, that’s pure maths.  Actually this metaphorical bloke has walked in to the pub blindfolded with his fingers in his ears chanting Laa laa.  

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14 minutes ago, Durbanite said:

 

We cannot even reduce out VAT without the say so of the EU, and we are not allowed to import goods from non EU countries that could be seen as direct competition to the EU.

 

 

VAT rates are set by each individual country within the EU and they do vary quite a lot. There is no standard EU VAT rate.

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Folks who say we shouldn't have a People's Vote/Referendum, call it what you will, forget that we had a vote way back in the early 1970s.

That vote was should we join or not? The result was "Yes".

So why did we have this 2016 one? If it's OK to have had the 2016 one, it's OK to have another.

 

If I buy something and find out it's not what I expected it to be, because the wrapping was very unclear as to what was in the box, I'm entitled to return it and get a full refund.

 

"Decision made"?  But no-one knew what the ACTUAL cost would be.

So why can't we just re-affirm we are happy that the outcome is in line with our expectations?

OR it's nothing like we were led to believe, and reject it?

 

This is 2018 and we are putting TROOPS on the streets????????? Unbelievable.

 

There is a lot of criticism of the financial people etc who said what was likely to happen when we leave, because "Their predictions were wrong, and it hasn't happened". That is quite correct, because we haven't left yet! No-one will know if they were right or wrong until AFTER we have left!

 

Edited by daveat92
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This thread is a total hoax based on fake news. The government haven't warned anyone not to book holidays.  

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3 minutes ago, Lutz said:

 

That's not the point. What I mean is controls of free movement across the borders, both of people and of goods, and import duties. These are independent of the actual amount of trade between two countries.

 

the statistic shows we import more from the EU than we export to them.

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Just now, Ern said:

This thread is a total hoax based on fake news. The government haven't warned anyone not to book holidays.  

I was wondering when someone would notice that.

 

It doesn't take much to get everyone ranting. As the saying goes, never let the facts get in the way of a good story.

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